At the end of the century, the United States finds itself in a place that is surprising in many respects, but that is surprisingly familiar in others. Indeed, much more than anyone had reason to expect during the Cold War, the American security position resembles what it was at the start of the century while the world has become more compatible with American values. Of course this does not guarantee that the next century will turn out well. Henry Luce said of the twentieth century: “No other century has been so big with promise … and in no one century have so many men and women and children suffered such pain and anguish and bitter death.” The first part of the statement clearly applies to the century we are entering; while appreciating the frequency of overoptimistic predictions, I doubt if the second part will.

It is a commonplace that “in the twentieth century, scientific and technological innovation increased at an exponential rate. … The Industrial Revolution extended over generations and allowed time for human and institutional adjustment. The Computer Revolution is far swifter, more concentrated, and more drastic in its impact.” Almost everyone agrees that change has been proceeding at an accelerated rate. Furthermore, it is usually argued that change is greater and more rapid in domestic than in international affairs. Our everyday lives and societies have been revolutionized by technological change and economic growth while international politics maintains its basic consistency, in large part because it remains a system of self-help and anarchy in the sense of absence of government.