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  3. An Introduction to Decision Theory
  • This edition has been replaced by: 9781316585061
  • This book is no longer available to purchase from Cambridge Core
  • Cited by 116
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Online publication date:
June 2013
Print publication year:
2009
Online ISBN:
9780511800917
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511800917
Series:
Cambridge Introductions to Philosophy
Subjects:
Philosophy: General Interest, Philosophy of Science, Optimization, OR and risk, Statistics and Probability, Philosophy
Information

Book description

This introduction to decision theory offers comprehensive and accessible discussions of decision-making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory. No mathematical skills are assumed, and all concepts and results are explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are over 100 exercises with solutions, and a glossary of key terms and concepts. An emphasis on foundational aspects of normative decision theory (rather than descriptive decision theory) makes the book particularly useful for philosophy students, but it will appeal to readers in a range of disciplines including economics, psychology, political science and computer science.

Reviews

"This up-to-date introduction to decision theory offers comprehensive and accessible discussions of decision-making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory.... all concepts and results are explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are over 100 exercises with solutions, and a glossary of key terms and concepts. An emphasis on foundational aspects of normative decision theory (rather than descriptive decision theory) makes the book particularly useful for philosophy students, but it will appeal to readers in a range of disciplines including economics, psychology, political science and computer science."
-- Mathematical Reviews

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Contents

Contents
References
Further reading
Chapter 1
Aristotle, (1958) Topics, trans. Ross, W. D., Oxford University Press.
Arnauld, A. and Nicole, P. (1662/1996) Logic or the Art of Thinking, 5th edn, trans. and ed. Buroker, Jill Vance, Cambridge University Press.
Hacking, I. (1975) The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction, and Statistical Inference, Cambridge University Press.
Herodotus, (1954) The Histories, trans. Sélincourt, Aubrey, Penquin Books.
Hume, D. (1739/1888) A Treatise of Human Nature, ed. Selby-Bigge, L. A., Clarendon Press.
Ramsey, F. P. (1931) ‘Truth and probability’, in The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays, Ch. VII, 156–98, ed. Braithwaite, R. B., Kegan, Paul, Trench, Trubner & Co.; Harcourt, Brace and Company.
Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O. (1947) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 2nd edn, Princeton University Press. (1st edn without utility theory.)
Chapter 2
Bergström, L. (1966) The Alternatives and Consequences of Actions, Almqvist & Wiksell International.
Pascal, B. (1660/1910) Pascal's Pensées, trans. Trotter, F. W., Dover Classics.
Peterson, M. and Hansson, S. O. (2005) ‘Order-independent transformative decision rules’, Synthese 147: 323–42.
Resnik, M. (1993) Choices. An Introduction to Decision Theory, University of Minnesota Press.
Savage, L. J. (1954) The Foundations of Statistics, John Wiley and Sons. (2nd edition 1972, Dover.)
Chapter 3
Luce, D. and Raiffa, H. (1957) Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey, John Wiley and Sons.
Milnor, J. W. (1954) ‘Games against nature’, in Thrall, et al., Decision Processes, John Wiley and Sons, 49–60.
Chapter 4
Allais, M. (1953) ‘Le Comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulates et axiomes de l'ecole Américaine’, Econometrica 21: 503–46.
Bernoulli, D. (1738/1954) ‘Specimen Theoriae Novae de Mensura Sortis’, Commentari Academiae Scientiarium Imperialis Petrolitanae, 5: 175–92. Translated as: ‘Expositions of a new theory on the measurement of risk’, Econometrica 22: 23–36.
Clark, M. and Schackel, N. (2000) ‘The two-envelope paradox’, Mind 109: 415–41.
Ellsberg, D. (1961) ‘Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 75: 643–69.
Horgan, T. (2000) ‘The two-envelope paradox, nonstandard expected utility, and the intensionality of probability’, Nous 34: 578–603.
Jeffrey, R. (1983) The Logic of Decision, 2nd edn, University of Chicago Press.
Katz, B. D. and Olin, D. (2007) ‘A tale of two envelopes’, Mind 116: 903–26.
Keynes, J. M. (1923) A Treatise on Probability, Macmillan & Co.
Levi, I. (1986) Hard Choices: Decision Making under Unresolved Conflict, Cambridge University Press.
Peterson, M. (2004) ‘From outcomes to acts: A non-standard axiomatization of the expected utility principle’, Journal of Philosophical Logic 33: 361–78.
Savage, L. J. (1954) The Foundations of Statistics, John Wiley and Sons. (2nd edition 1972, Dover.)
Chapter 5
Bentham, J. (1789/1970) An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation, ed. Burns, J. H. and Hart, H. L. A., The Athlone Press.
Fishburn, P. (1970) Utility Theory for Decision Making, John Wiley and Sons. Reprinted by Krieger Press 1979.
Herstein, I. N. and Milnor, J. (1953) ‘An axiomatic approach to measurable utility’, Econometrica 21: 291–7.
Krantz, D. H., Luce, R. D., Suppes, P. and Tversky, A. (1971) Foundations of Measurement: Volume 1 Additive and Polynomial Representations, Academic Press.
Levi, I. (1989) ‘Rationality, prediction, and autonomous choice’, Canadian Journal of Philosophy 19 (suppl.), 339–62. Reprinted in Levi, I. (1997) The Covenant of Reason, Cambridge University Press.
Luce, R. D. (1959/2005) Individual Choice Behaviour. A Theoretical Analysis, John Wiley and Sons.
Mill, J. S. (1863/1998) Utilitarianism, ed. Crisp, R., Oxford University Press.
Spohn, W. (1977) ‘Where Luce and Krantz do really generalize Savage's decision model’, Erkenntnis 11: 113–34.
Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O. (1947) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 2nd edn, Princeton University Press. (1st edn without utility theory.)
Chapter 6
Kolmogorov, A. N. (1956) Foundations of the Theory of Probability, trans. Morrison, N., Chelsea Publishing Company.
Chapter 7
Carnap, R. (1950) Logical Foundations of Probability, University of Chicago Press.
Finetti, B. (1931/1989) ‘Probabilism: A critical essay on the theory of probability and on the value of science’, Erkenntnis 31: 169–223. [Translation of: B. de Finetti (1931), Probabilismo Logos 14: 163–219.]
DeGroot, M. (1970) Optimal Statistical Decisions, McGraw-Hill.
Fishburn, P. (1989) ‘Generalizations of expected utility theories: A survey of recent proposals’, Annals of Operations Research 19: 3–28.
Good, I. J. (1950) Probability and the Weighing of Evidence, Griffin.
Hansson, B. (1975) ‘The appropriateness of the expected utility model’, Erkenntnis 9: 175–93.
Humphreys, P. (1985) ‘Why propensities cannot be probabilities’, Philosophical Review 94: 557–70.
Jeffrey, R. (1983) The Logic of Decision, 2nd edn (significant improvements from 1st edn), University of Chicago Press.
Keynes, J. M. (1923) A Tract on Monetary Reform, Macmillan & Co.
Koopman, B. (1940) ‘The bases of probability’, Bulletin of the American Mathematial Society 46: 763–74.
Kreps, D. M. (1988) Notes on the Theory of Choice, Westview Press.
Laplace, P. S. (1814) A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, English translation 1951,Dover.
Mellor, D. H. (1971) The Matter of Chance, Cambridge University Press.
Popper, K. (1957) ‘The propensity interpretation of the calculus of probability and the quantum theory’ in The Colston Papers 9, ed. Körner, S., Dover, 65–70.
Ramsey, F. P. (1931) ‘Truth and probability’, in The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays, Ch. VII, 156–98, ed. Braithwaite, R. B., Kegan, Paul, Trench, Trubner & Co.; Harcourt, Brace and Company.
Savage, L. J. (1954) The Foundations of Statistics, John Wiley and Sons. (2nd edn 1972, Dover.)
Schervish, M. J., Seidenfeld, T. and Kadane, J. B. (1990) ‘State-dependent utilities’, Journal of the American Statistical Association 85: 840–7.
Chapter 8
Arrow, K. J. (1970) ‘The theory of risk aversion’, in his Essays in the Theory of Risk-Bearing, North-Holland Publishing Company.
Blackorby, C., Donaldson, D. and Weymark, J. A. (1999) ‘Harsanyi's social aggegation theorem for state-contingent alternatives’, Journal of Mathematical Economics 32: 365–387.
Cubitt, R. P. (1996) ‘Rational dynamic choice and expected utility theory’, Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, 48: 1–19.
Espinoza, N. (2008) ‘The small improvement argument’, Synthese 165: 127–39.
Gärdenfors, P. and Sahlin, N. -E. (1988) ‘Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making’, in Gärdenfors, P. and Sahlin, N. -E., Decision, Probability, and Utility, Cambridge University Press323–34.
Hansson, B. (1988) ‘Risk aversion as a problem of conjoint measurement’, in Gäredenfors, P. and Sahlin, N. E., Decision, Probability, and Utility, Cambridge University Press.
Hansson, S. O. (2001) The Structure of Values and Norms, Cambridge University Press.
McClennen, E. F. (1990) Rationality and Dynamic Choice: Foundational Explorations, Cambridge University Press.
Pratt, J. W. (1964) ‘Risk aversion in the small and in the large’, Econometrica 32: 122–36.
Rabinowicz, W. (1995a) ‘On Seinfeld's criticism of sophisticated violations of the independence axiom’, Theory and Decision 43: 279–92.
Rabinowicz, W. (1995b) ‘To have one's cake and eat it, too: Sequential choice and expected-utility violations’, Journal of Philosophy 92: 586–620.
Samuelson, P. (1938) ‘A note on the pure theory of consumer's behaviour’, Economica 5: 61–71.
Chapter 9
Egan, A. (2007) ‘Some counterexamples to causal decision theory’, Philosophical Review 116(1): 93–114.
Gibbard, A. and Harper, W. L. ([1978] 1988) ‘Counterfactuals and two kinds of expected utility’, in Gärdenfors, P. and Sahlin, N. E., Decision, Probability, and Utility, Cambridge University Press, 341–76.
Harper, W. (1986) ‘Mixed strategies and ratifiability in causal decision theory’, Erkenntnis 24(1): 25–36.
Horwich, P. (1985) ‘Decision theory in light of Newcomb's problem’, Philosophy of Science 52: 431–50.
Joyce, J. M. (1999) The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory, Cambridge University Press.
Nozick, R. (1969) ‘Newcomb's problem and two principles of choice’, in Essays in Honor of Carl G. Hempel, ed. Rescher, N.et al., Reidel, 114–46.
Rabinowicz, W. (1989) ‘Stable and retrievable options’, Philosophy of Science 56: 624–41.
Skyrms, B. (1982) ‘Causal decision theory’, Journal of Philosophy 79: 695–711.
Weirich, P. (1985) ‘Decision instability’, Australasian Journal of Philosophy 63: 465–72.
Chapter 10
Blackburn, S. (1998) Ruling Passions, Oxford University Press.
Bradley, R. (2007) ‘A unified Bayesian decision theory’, Theory and Decision 63: 233–63.
Howson, C. and Urbach, P. (2005) Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach, 3rd edn, Open Court Publishing Company.
Maher, P. (1993) Betting on Theories, Cambridge University Press.
Chapter 11
Kreps, D. M. (1990) Game Theory and Economic Modeling, Oxford University Press.
Lewis, D. (1979) ‘Prisoner's dilemma is a Newcomb problem’, Philosophy and Public Affairs 8: 235–40.
Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O. (1947) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 2nd edn, Princeton University Press. (1st edn without utility theory.)
Chapter 12
Hargraves Heap, S. P. and Varoufakis, Y. (1995) Game Theory: A Critical Introduction, Routledge.
Maynard Smith, J. (1982) Evoloution and the Theory of Games, Cambridge University Press.
Nash, J. (1950a). Non-Cooperative Games, Ph.D. dissertation Princeton University.
Nash, J. (1950b) ‘The bargaining problem’, Econometrica 18: 155–62.
Chapter 13
Arrow, K. J. (1951) Social Choice and Individual Values. John Wiley and Sons, New York. (2nd edn 1963.)
Broome, J. (1999) Ethics out of Economics, Cambridge University Press.
Condorcet, (1793/1847) ‘Plan de Constitution, présenté à la convention nationale les 15 et 16 février 1793’, Oeuvres 12: 333–415.
Harsanyi, J. C. (1955) ‘Cardinal welfare, individualistic ethics, and interpersonal comparisons of Utility’, Journal of Political Economy 63: 309–21.
Harsanyi, J. C. (1979) ‘Bayesian decision theory, rule utilitarianisim, and Arrow's impossibility theorem’, Theory and Decision 11: 289–317.
May, K. (1952) ‘A set of independent necessary and sufficient conditions for simple majority decision’, Econometrica 20(4), 680–4.
Nozick, R. (1974) Anarchy, State, Utopia, Basic Books.
Sen, A. (1970) ‘The impossibility of a Paretian liberal’, The Journal of Political Economy 78: 152–7.
Sen, A. (1995) ‘Rationality and social choice’, American Economic Review 85: 1–24.
Sen, A. (1999) ‘The possibility of social choice’, American Economic Review 89: 349–78.
Chapter 14
Coombs, C. H., Dawes, R. M. and Tversky, A (1970) Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction, Prentice-Hall.
Kagel, J. H. and Roth, A. (1995) The Handbook of Experimental Economics, Princeton University Press.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979) ‘Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk’, Econometrica 47: 263–91.
May, K. O. (1954) ‘Intransitivity, utility, and the aggregation of preference patterns’, Econometrica 22: 1–13.
Loomes, G. and Taylor, C. (1992) ‘Non-transitive preferences over gains and losses’, Economic Journal 102: 357–65.
Slovic, P. (2000) The Perception of Risk, Earthscan.

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