“The primary object of this book is to answer a single question, namely, why has the tonnage of ships registered in the United Kingdom declined from over forty-five percent of the world total in 1900 to about sixteen percent of that total in I960?” In the preceding pages the factors which have, or might have, contributed to this relative decline were examined. Here the threads can be drawn together, and the four possible answers to the question, which were outlined in the first chapter, considered. In doing this, all qualifications and subtleties are excluded: the judgments of this chapter cannot be considered apart from the longer discussions in the earlier chapters of the book.

Changes in Economic Factors

The first possible answer to the question is that changes in cost conditions since 1900 have created a situation in which British shipping could not grow in competition with more favourably placed fleets. Crew costs are the main internationally variable cost item. Differences in crew costs, whether arising from variations in wage rates, social security payments or manning scales, affect the economic operation of shipping. International crew cost comparisons are difficult to make because the necessary information is not collected in some leading countries, notably Britain. Most of the available information relates only to wage rates or wage costs. Wage rate comparisons ignore variations in both manning and in the non-wage elements of crew costs; wage cost comparisons ignore the non-wage elements. The proportion of crew costs made up of nonwage elements varies significantly from country to country.

For the above reasons, most cost comparisons need treating with suspicion, and small variations in wage rates or wage costs, although they may be significant, cannot be so regarded in the absence of additional information. This being so, the information available provides insufficient ground for attributing to British crew costs a major rôle in an explanation of the slow growth. Norwegian tramps before 1913 and Greek and Yugoslavian tramps in the interwar period were assisted by their lower wage costs compared with British tramps, although this was partly offset by the higher repair costs of old ships. Japanese ships of all kinds enjoyed lower wage costs for much of the period since 1890, although the advantage may now have disappeared.