There is a decline in the clout of the United States in world affairs, especially in the Middle East. It is largely the result of the Iraq debacle, though other aspects of this US Administration's policies have also contributed to this.

Iraq has drained the strength of the all-volunteer US Army, leaving little ground forces capability for other contingencies. It is turning American public opinion against the war and may possibly be sowing the seeds of isolationism. The poor judgments and incompetence of US policy-makers have been on display before the whole world.

It is little wonder then that Iran can defy the international community about its nuclear programme and Hizbollah can confidently up the stakes in Lebanon. The fear of punishment from the only superpower seems to have dissipated. The confidence placed by key moderate Arab states in the US to secure the region's stability has been shaken. It is easy to understand their bitterness over US policies and their alarm over the rising power of Iran and the Shi'stes in the Persian Gulf.

Other countries too will be watching the unfolding drama closely. President Karzai in Afghanistan will be getting more nervous as the threat from the Taleban, with its sanctuaries in neighbouring Pakistan, grows. Pakistan's military regime may start to feel that it can continue to allow the Taleban to operate from these sanctuaries with impunity as well as tolerate an Al Qaeda presence so long as it does not threaten Islamabad's own vital interests. India will fear that externally-supported terrorism on its territory will grow. India-Pakistan rapprochement could come to a halt. Pakistan will likely be encouraged and India disheartened if a weakened US “hand” in South Asia results in a stronger Chinese one.

The last time the US was affected in this way was during and after the withdrawal from Vietnam in the 1970s, though the US posture on the critical Cold War military front in central Europe remained largely unscathed. When a war-weary US Congress cut off funds for any military operations in Vietnam and drastically reduced economic aid to then Saigon government, the North Vietnamese army delivered the coup de grace to the South Vietnamese regime.