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1 - Introduction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 December 2012

Samantha Kleinberg
Affiliation:
Stevens Institute of Technology, New Jersey
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Summary

Whether we want to know the cause of a stock's price movements (in order to trade on this information), the key phrases that can alter public opinion of a candidate (in order to optimize a politician's speeches), or which genes work together to regulate a disease causing process (in order to intervene and disrupt it), many goals center on finding and using causes. Causes tell us not only that two phenomena are related, but how they are related. They allow us to make robust predictions about the future, explain the relationship between and occurrence of events, and develop effective policies for intervention.

While predictions are often made successfully on the basis of associations alone, these relationships can be unstable. If we do not know why the resulting models work, we cannot foresee when they will stop working. Lung cancer rates in an area may be correlated with match sales if many smokers use matches to light their cigarettes, but match sales may also be influenced by blackouts and seasonal trends (with many purchases around holidays or in winter). A spike in match sales due to a blackout will not result in the predicted spike in lung cancer rates, but without knowledge of the underlying causes we would not be able to anticipate that failure. Models based on associations can also lead to redundancies, since multiple effects of the true cause may be included as they are correlated with its occurrence.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2012

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  • Introduction
  • Samantha Kleinberg, Stevens Institute of Technology, New Jersey
  • Book: Causality, Probability, and Time
  • Online publication: 05 December 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139207799.001
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  • Introduction
  • Samantha Kleinberg, Stevens Institute of Technology, New Jersey
  • Book: Causality, Probability, and Time
  • Online publication: 05 December 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139207799.001
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Introduction
  • Samantha Kleinberg, Stevens Institute of Technology, New Jersey
  • Book: Causality, Probability, and Time
  • Online publication: 05 December 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139207799.001
Available formats
×