Taiwan is at the center stage of China's foreign relations, and yet mainland China's military threat and coercive diplomacy toward it seem to be removed from its otherwise increasingly sophisticated foreign policy. Exactly how does the Taiwan issue fit into China's quest for great-power status? This chapter addresses the question. It argues that China's concern for reassurance regarding its foreign intentions starkly increases the diplomatic costs of a military option to force unification. Such an assessment of diplomatic costs further dissuades the Chinese Communist Party leadership from a resort to force. Yet as Taiwan has also become a key marker for China's great-power recognition, the gentler turn in Chinese foreign policy ironically has made Taiwan's independence even more intolerable for the People's Republic of China. China's status advancement has made it both imperative and possible for the mainland to pursue a more sophisticated set of preventative measures beyond the blunt instrument of deterrence, designed to maintain a “one China”-oriented status quo across the Taiwan Strait.

International Recognition Versus the Use of Force

When contemplating the use of force, the national leaders of China invariably weigh the costs and benefits of their choice. Regarding a decision by the PRC about Taiwan, what is striking is the juxtaposition of the enormous value the CCP leadership attaches to the issue and the equally enormous costs that a forced solution would entail. When the Chinese leadership makes the fateful decision to go to war, it must carefully calculate the consequences.