In the early months of 1992, President Habyarimana appeared on the defensive and seemed increasingly politically vulnerable. The opposition parties were united and were gaining substantial popular support, while the RPF posed a continuing threat to the regime. The international community was placing pressure on the government to move toward democracy. Rwandan civil society and opposition party activists, as well as foreign scholars who visited Rwanda at the time, were optimistic that Rwanda was on the threshold of a major political transformation.

The political transformation that ultimately did take place was not, however, what the scholars and activists had anticipated. The optimism that marked the establishment of the multiparty government of transition in March 1992 faded within only a few months and by early 1993 was replaced by frustration, disappointment, and fear. The failure of opposition politicians to change substantially the nature and direction of government made people increasingly cynical about the promises of politics. The escalation of the war marked by massive RPF invasions of northern Rwanda in June 1992 and February 1993 and the expansion of crime and political violence within Rwanda made the population increasingly fearful and uncertain and, thus, vulnerable to political manipulation.