Introduction

The predictions of catastrophe have been realised in many places around the earth – already. These take the form of sporadic events such as cyclones and droughts. They also feature as longer-term or even permanent changes in living conditions stemming from, for example, rising sea levels. The problem is not ‘natural disasters’ as such, since these are an inevitable part of habitation on a living planet. Rather, it is the scale, frequency and intensity that matters, as well as the capacity of individuals and communities to predict, adapt to and respond after such events.

This chapter examines the consequences of climate change from the point of view of disasters and their consequences for specific interest and population groups. It does this in several ways. A key focus is the social intersections that become apparent in such events. For example, the climatic and weather events that form the backdrop to present conflicts in places such as Syria are discussed, as are the gendered vulnerabilities evident in disaster situations such as cyclones and tsunami. Social conflicts stemming from climate change are then elaborated as a more general and increasingly likely scenario. In response to real and perceived threats and risk linked to climate change, issues of security are already generating angst among policy-makers and military planners. The securitisation of natural resources, to the detriment of others, is emerging as an important climate-related issue, especially in regard to food, water, land and air quality.

Disasters and criminality

Those who are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change are those who are most likely to be vulnerable to events such as droughts, floods and cyclones. The conventional approach to disasters is to see them as ‘natural’ (and includes such things as earthquakes, volcanoes and floods) or human-caused (relating to fires, explosions and oil spills) (see Picou et al, 2009). In the context of major global changes in climate change, biodiversity and pollution, this presumption may no longer be warranted.