This chapter weighs the effect of domestic factors in facilitating or hindering cooperation between MS in enlargement policies. The chapter begins by looking at the reasons why domestic factors (particularly public perceptions) are likely to affect cooperation in this area by evaluating the previous two rounds of enlargement (in 2004 and 2007), as well as examining attitudes towards and challenges faced by current accession candidates. It then provides an overview of the workings of the policy itself and the reasons why cooperation between MS is essential for its success. In order to test whether and which domestic factors have an impact on the stances of Member States towards accession, an empirical analysis of the Turkish case (the most contentious and hence the one where such effects are most likely to be found) follows. Results of the fsqca and regression analysis are discussed in the final section.

Domestic factors and enlargement

Enlargement is probably the most successful European foreign policy to date. It continues to be (as stated by the European Security Strategy) a crucial component of European foreign policies and affects some of the EU'S most important strategic interests. In addition, enlargement (particularly towards Turkey) has a major impact on both transatlantic relations and energy policy. On the other hand, the last two rounds of enlargement provoked a strong backlash in the electorates of several Member States, making the continuation of this policy controversial. It may also have contributed to the rise of populist and Eurosceptic parties throughout Western Europe, even in some previously pro-European MS, such as the Netherlands. Hence, there seems to be a strong link between enlargement and domestic political dynamics.

Enlargement is one of the areas where domestic debates have been vigorous and where they are likely to have important effects in shaping European foreign policies. This is not what one would expect if one follows the Almond-Lippmann consensus, which says that foreign policy should be shielded from public debate and little influenced by public attitudes. While this may be true in certain European countries, it is certainly not what happens in MS such as France, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, the UK, Ireland, and, more recently, Italy. It is therefore relevant to look at the effects of public perceptions on accession policies.