Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-68945f75b7-49v7h Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-09-03T13:21:45.716Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

5 - Modelling return distributions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2012

Terence C. Mills
Affiliation:
Loughborough University
Get access

Summary

Empirical research on returns distributions has been ongoing since the early 1960s: see, for example, the surveys in Kon (1984), Badrinath and Chatterjee (1988) and Mittnik and Rachev (1993a). These have almost universally found that such distributions are characterised by the ‘stylised facts’ of fat tails and high peakedness – excess kurtosis – and are often skewed. However, there have been several recent developments in statistics and econometrics that have led to considerable advances in the analysis of such distributions. To set the scene for subsequent analysis, section 1 presents initial descriptive analysis of the distributional properties of three typical return series, before section 2 reviews two of the most important theoretical models for examining return distributions, the stable process and, much more briefly since it was analysed in great detail in the previous chapter, the ARCH process. Section 3 generalises the discussion to consider tail shapes of distributions and methods of estimating indices of these shapes, while section 4 reviews existing empirical research and offers new evidence from our own returns series. Section 5 considers the implications of fat-tailed distributions for testing the conventional maintained assumption of time series models of returns, that of weak, or covariance, stationarity. Section 6 switches attention to modelling the central part of returns distributions and section 7 reviews data analytic methods of modelling skewness and kurtosis. The distributional properties of absolute returns are the focus of section 8, and a summary and some further extensions are provided in section 9.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1999

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×