Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Acknowledgements
- Preface by Peter Ho
- Introduction: The “Gentle Art”
- Sources
- I A Unique Legacy
- II Shell Scenarios – A History, 1965-2013
- III The Essence of the Shell Art
- IV Looking Ahead
- V Conclusion
- Epilogue: Scenario Team Leaders
- Afterword
- Appendix A – Timeline
- Appendix B – Summary of Scenarios
- Index
III - The Essence of the Shell Art
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 16 February 2021
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Acknowledgements
- Preface by Peter Ho
- Introduction: The “Gentle Art”
- Sources
- I A Unique Legacy
- II Shell Scenarios – A History, 1965-2013
- III The Essence of the Shell Art
- IV Looking Ahead
- V Conclusion
- Epilogue: Scenario Team Leaders
- Afterword
- Appendix A – Timeline
- Appendix B – Summary of Scenarios
- Index
Summary
Scenarios provide the right framework for appreciating fundamental long-term choice, which is not the same as next year's annual plan.
– Peter Voser, CEO Royal Dutch Shell Plc, 2009-14The word “scenario” emanates from the film industry where a scenario is used as a detailed plan of action for the production of a film. The words “scenario” and “plan” are synonymous in this context. In strategic planning a scenario is the opposite of a plan – there is no such synonymy at all!
– J.P. Leemhuis, Manager, Corporate Planning Shell Netherlands, 1983An organization needs to be aware of its perceptual limitations, and to detect the unexpected its managers have to become more skillful observers of the business environment. This is where scenarios come in.
– Graham Galer, Socio-Political Team Leader, 1976-78In contrast to the more secretive and ‘one-off’ practices of other firms, Shell has widely shared and disseminated its scenarios. Shell now regularly publishes its global and long-term energy scenarios, and these, together with several handbooks detailing the Shell scenario method, have been used as reference by other companies, governments, and international institutions. This widespread use of Shell materials suggests that the impact and influence of the Shell scenario practice extends well beyond the company.
Given the continuing relevance of Shell's scenario practice, an examination of the essence of the art, extracted from almost half a century's practice, offers a rich treasure trove for those interested in actionable foresight who seek to avoid the extremes of “interesting but useless” on the one hand and “useable but not very interesting” on the other.
Throughout its history, the Shell scenario practice has largely assumed that while the future cannot be predicted, it can be prepared for. The scenario ‘magic’ is not in the quality of the scenarios as a product but in the ability of the company to make effective use of the scenarios and to create additional value through linking the creation and use of the scenarios with other processes.
Scenarios have helped individual decision-makers as well as management teams to engage with uncertainty and to attend to important developments that lie beyond their sphere of expertise and influence.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Essence of ScenariosLearning from the Shell Experience, pp. 75 - 112Publisher: Amsterdam University PressPrint publication year: 2014