Introduction

The popularity of the majority of the 20 estates fell and rose over time (Chapter 9). It was affected by their own characteristics, in terms of quality, safety and order, and, to some extent, population and social mix, and by how these compared to other local options, as has been shown in Part II. In addition to their own characteristics, however, all 20 estates were affected by factors well beyond their boundaries, as some theories have suggested (Chapter 3). This chapter explores national and local changes in the amount and type of demand for social housing over estate lifetimes, as part of the explanation for changes in the relative popularity of the 20 estates.

The national fall and rise in the demand for social housing over estate lifetimes

The rise and rise of English populations and households

In 1921, the census immediately before the first of the 20 estates was first let, there were 36.2 million people in England and Wales, living in 8.7 million households. In 2011, the most recent census, the population had increased by about half to 53.7 million people, but the number of households had almost tripled to 24.0 million. Population increase was slowest over the period 1971–2001, and fastest over 2001–11. Household numbers increased most slowly from 1971 to 2001 and fastest over the period 1921–51.

From 1901 to 1981, the rise in numbers of people and households mentioned earlier was more than matched by an increase in the supply of housing. The building of the 17,000 homes in the 20 estates was a very small part of this overall development. Huge private, public and social resources went into the creation of the additional homes and housing space. The state directly subsidised the building of over 5 million council and latterly housing association homes; it controlled the use and price of land, and used taxation to encourage development and to influence occupation patterns (Malpass 2005; Mullins and Murie 2006). In 1921 and for four more decades, there were more households than homes, meaning many had to share. However, housing development gradually closed the gap, finally achieving net surplus during the decade 1961–71.