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12 - Parsimony

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 November 2009

Michael Clements
Affiliation:
University of Warwick
David Hendry
Affiliation:
University of Oxford
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Summary

We have addressed many issues arising in selecting models for forecasting, including selection criteria, the roles of causal information and indicators, the sources of error, forecast combinations, and the role of stationarity transformations. Both asymptotic analyses and small-sample evidence have been presented. However, the topic of parsimony remains to be analysed, and that is the focus of this chapter. Although most forecasters seem to believe that parsimony is important, and profligate parameterizations do not help multi-step forecasting, a formal theory has not yet been developed. After noting the large literature on model-selection criteria, we consider decisions based on values of the t-test of a coefficient on a variable being zero, and relate the outcome to our earlier result on non-monotonic forecast confidence intervals. However, it is hard to generalize this analysis to vector processes, as the powering up of a matrix can have odd effects on the importance of individual coefficients. Next, we establish that collinearity between regressors cannot be a strong justification for parsimony in stationary processes, but may play a role in systems subject to structural breaks. Finally, simplification in model selection is considered to establish whether it exacerbates or attenuates dependence on accidental aspects of a data set.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1998

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  • Parsimony
  • Michael Clements, University of Warwick, David Hendry, University of Oxford
  • Book: Forecasting Economic Time Series
  • Online publication: 02 November 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511599286.014
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  • Parsimony
  • Michael Clements, University of Warwick, David Hendry, University of Oxford
  • Book: Forecasting Economic Time Series
  • Online publication: 02 November 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511599286.014
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Parsimony
  • Michael Clements, University of Warwick, David Hendry, University of Oxford
  • Book: Forecasting Economic Time Series
  • Online publication: 02 November 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511599286.014
Available formats
×