Selecting objectives, choosing instruments, and fashioning the statecraft that connects them may seem to complete strategic planning, but these tasks really just begin it. For the courses of action created by that initial selection of ends, ways, and means require two kinds of evaluation before they can be finalized. First, strategists must think hard about how and to what degree the benefits of their proposed strategy will materialize, about whether their instruments as applied will have an impact that leads to success. These are Steps 4 and 5 in the strategy planning process (see Figure 8.1). Second, strategists must soberly consider the potential downsides of the actions they propose, including the costs and risks their proposed courses of action may engender, their compatibility with each other, and their effect on other foreign affairs strategies that serve other important interests. These are the concerns of Steps 6, 7, and 8 in the process.

IMPACT: Estimate How Courses of Action (COAs) Will Affect Recipients

How should strategists go about deciding whether their courses of action are likely to work, whether the ways and means chosen will in fact accomplish their objectives? First, it is necessary to estimate the proposed instruments' ability to impact their recipients – that is, to actually inflict punishment or a powerful fear of it, or to provide rewards or a confident expectation of them.