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10 - QUANTITATIVE EVIDENCE: MICRO-, MACRO-, AND MULTILEVEL

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2012

Henry E. Hale
Affiliation:
George Washington University, Washington DC
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Summary

The preceding five chapters have employed a carefully chosen set of qualitative methods, including illustrative focused comparisons involving Ukraine and Uzbekistan, to demonstrate how a relational approach to ethnicity can improve our understanding of the totality of events related to former Soviet republics' separatist behavior. One might still wonder: Would a systematic study of more ethnic regions confirm the patterns that seem evident when the focus is on Ukraine and Uzbekistan? And even though earlier chapters have discussed public opinion survey findings, readers may yet ask: Would a more rigorous analysis of such figures – one introducing relevant control variables – still support the theory in comparison with its rivals? Ideally, the answers would be linked: Would appropriate quantitative techniques bear out this volume's claim that there actually was a connection between what was happening at the level of the republics and what was going on at the level of individual opinion?

There is good news and bad news here. First, the bad news: Because the events of primary interest took place in 1990–1, we cannot go back in time to collect the ideal data that would allow us to dismiss these concerns with complete confidence. The good news, though, is that there are at least some data available. And even though many of these data were not collected specifically for this purpose and are often far from ideal, they are of sufficient quality to weigh significantly toward or against accepting the rival theories under discussion here.

Type
Chapter
Information
The Foundations of Ethnic Politics
Separatism of States and Nations in Eurasia and the World
, pp. 216 - 238
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2008

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References

Hale, Henry E., “The Parade of Sovereignties: Testing Theories of Secession in the Soviet Setting,” British Journal of Political Science, v.30, no.1, January 2000, pp. 31–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Emizet, Kisangani N. and Hesli, Vicki L., “The Disposition to Secede: An Analysis of the Soviet Case,” Comparative Political Studies, v.27, no.4, January 1995, pp. 492–536.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, “Statistical Models for Political Science Event Counts: Bias in Conventional Procedures and Evidence for the Exponential Poisson Regression Model,” American Journal of Political Science, v.32, 1988, pp. 838–63, 851.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nekrich, Aleksandr, The Punished Peoples (New York: W. W. Norton, 1978)Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew and Hill, Jennifer, Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007)Google Scholar
Longitudinal/Panel Data (College Station, TX: Stata Press, 2007).
Hesli, Vicki L., Reisinger, William M., and Miller, Arthur H., “The Sources of Support for Separatism: Public Opinion in Three Soviet Republics,” Nations and Nationalism, v.3, no.2, 1997, pp. 201–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear, “Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms,” International Organization, v.58, fall 2004, pp. 807–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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