‘Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia. The enemy of the moment always represented absolute evil, and it followed that any past or future agreement with him was impossible.’ The readers of George Orwell's 1984 know that Oceania had in fact previously been at war with Eastasia, the third great power mentioned in the book, and that the alliance had probably shifted several times before already. But who the enemy is does not matter to the regime of Oceania; what matters is that there is an evil to make war against, in order to legitimise the dictatorship of Big Brother. The war is not meant to be won; waging permanent war has become an end in itself.

Great power politics in the 21st century does not resemble this pattern – yet. But the elements are there that could produce an uncontrollable dynamic leading to permanent open-ended rivalry between the great powers. In 1991, the Soviet Union fell apart and the Cold War ended; only for rivalry to begin anew between the Russian Federation, the US and the EU. Had democracy taken root in Russia and not given way to authoritarianism, rivalry might have been avoided, if the democratic regime had accepted a reduced stature in international politics. But would a democratic Russia not also have sought great power status, like its predecessor? Likewise, a hypothetical democratic China would certainly still be a great power, might well uphold the claims to Taiwan and the South China Sea, and would definitely compete globally for markets, resources and influence. Would China and the US end their rivalry then? In fact, tensions arise even between the US and the EU, when the former perceives the latter to be gaining too much power and independence in certain areas, and, vice versa, when Brussels feels that Washington does not respect it as a strategic player. Tensions exist between China and Russia as well. Harmonisation of domestic political systems clearly does not suffice to prevent natural competition between powers from sliding into rivalry. The risk of permanent rivalry arises not because the great powers have different ways of life, but when they cannot accept the existence of peer competitors that pursue their legitimate interests in all the same theatres across the globe.