The most important social benefit from earthquake research is the use of that knowledge to reduce the hazard earthquakes pose to mankind. These applications may take several forms, which range from the construction of various kinds of hazard maps that permit the prediction (in a probabilistic sense) of the exposure to future ground shaking to the actual prediction of specific earthquakes. Here the current status of these developing fields is summarized.

Introduction

Historical

Throughout the ages the prediction of earthquakes, along with wars, pestilences, famines, and floods, has been the occupation of soothsayers and other such self-proclaimed prophets. The skepticism that accompanied the rise of the scientific study of earthquakes has not, however, removed prediction as a serious goal. Lyell, for example, devoted considerable attention to the subject. He was impressed that throughout history, in many disconnected societies, nearly identical traditions could be found that held that earthquakes are preceded by unusual phenomena.