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11 - The Baker Institute World Gas Trade Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 September 2009

Peter Hartley
Affiliation:
Chair, Department of EconomicsRice University
Kenneth B. Medlock III
Affiliation:
Research FellowJames A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University
David G. Victor
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
Amy M. Jaffe
Affiliation:
Rice University, Houston
Mark H. Hayes
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
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Summary

Introduction

Natural gas increased from roughly 19 percent of world primary energy demand in 1980 to about 23 percent in 2002 (EIA 2004) and is now produced and consumed in forty-three countries around the world. Moreover, the International Energy Agency (IEA) (IEA 2004) predicts that world natural gas demand will be about 90 percent higher by 2030. It also projects that the share of gas in world primary energy demand will increase from 23 percent in 2002 to 25 percent in 2030, with gas potentially overtaking coal as the world's second largest energy source. The IEA predicts that the power sector will account for 60 percent of the increase in gas demand.

Much of current world production of natural gas comes from mature basins in the United States and the North Sea. Russia, where production rivals that in the United States, currently accounts for almost one-quarter of world production but, unlike the United States, has substantial reserves that remain untapped. Furthermore, Russia and the countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) rank first globally in undiscovered natural gas potential (USGS 2000). These countries already export considerable quantities of natural gas to Europe, and they are expected to become important suppliers to the growing needs in Asia.

The countries of the Middle East also have substantial natural gas resources, both proved and potential, which are relatively untapped.

Type
Chapter
Information
Natural Gas and Geopolitics
From 1970 to 2040
, pp. 357 - 406
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

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References

Brito, Dagobert and Peter R. Hartley (2001). “Using Sakhalin natural gas in Japan,” in New Energy Technologies in the Natural Gas Sector: A Policy Framework for Japan; available at http://www.rice.edu/energy/publications/newenergytechnologies_gassectors.html
CERA (2002). The New Wave: Global LNG in the 21st Century. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge Energy Research Associates
Dickson, Andrew and Noble, Ken (2003). “Eastern Australia's gas supply and demand balance,”APPEA Journal, Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association 43, pp. 135–145CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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EIA (2003b). “Expansion and Change on the US Natural Gas Pipeline Network – 2002.” Washington, DC: US Energy Information Association
EIA (2004). International Energy Outlook 2004. Washington, DC: US Energy Information Administration
Geosciences Australia (2001). Oil and Gas Resources of Australia
Hartley, Peter R. and Kyle, Albert S. (1989). “Equilibrium investment in an industry with moderate investment economies of scale.” Economic Journal, 99, pp. 392–407CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IEA (2003). World Energy Investment Outlook WEIO, 2003 Insights. Paris: International Energy Agency
Medlock, Kenneth B. III and Soligo, Ronald (2001). “Economic development and end-use energy demand.” Energy Journal, 22(2), pp. 77–105Google Scholar
NPC (2003). “Balancing natural gas policy.” Washington, DC: National Petroleum Council: available at http://www.npc.org
Summers, R., A. Heston et al. (1995). The Penn World Table (Mark 5.6a). Philadephia, DA: Centre for International comparisons at the university of Pennsylvania; available at http://put.econ.upenn.edu
USGS (2000). United States Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment. Washington, DC: United States Geological Survey

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