This appendix provides additional details about the statistical tests employed in Chapters 3 and 4. It consists of three main sections. First, it describes the variables used in the quantitative models of compellent threats (Chapter 3) and territorial dispute settlements (Chapter 4). Second, it discusses the methodology used to analyze compellent threats and presents detailed findings from a series of regressions. Third, it presents the methodology and findings from the territorial disputes analysis.

Variables

We used a number of variables to statistically analyze the role of nuclear weapons in coercive diplomacy. Unless otherwise noted, the variables pertaining to our analysis of compellent threats are from the Militarized Compellent Threats (MCT) data set, and the territorial dispute–related measures are from Huth and Allee's data set of territorial disputes. We group the variables into five categories below.

Coercive outcome variables:

1. • COMPELLENCE SUCCESS. A dichotomous variable that is coded one if the target voluntarily complied with all demands of the challenger and the challenger did not have to use military force to achieve its desired outcome. The variable is coded zero otherwise.

2. • COMPELLENCE SUCCESS WITH FORCE. A dichotomous variable that codes compellent threats as successful even if the challenger used limited military force, as long as the target suffered fewer than 100 fatalities.

3. • PARTIAL COMPELLENCE SUCCESS. A variable that codes compellent threats as successful if the target complied with any – as opposed to all – of the challenger's demands.

4. • CHALLENGER TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS. A dichotomous variable that is coded one if the challenger makes limited or major concessions in the current round of territorial negotiations and zero if it makes no concessions.

5. • TARGET TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS. A dichotomous variable that is coded one if the target makes limited or major concessions in the current round of territorial negotiations and zero if it makes no concessions.

Military escalation variables:

1. • RESOLVE. A dichotomous variable that is coded one if the challenger employed demonstrations of force or engaged in military mobilizations during a compellent threat episode.

2. • MILITARY CHALLENGE. A dichotomous variable that is coded one if the challenger initiated a militarized dispute against the target in the context of a territorial dispute. The variable is coded zero otherwise.