WHEN faced with several courses of action, people usually do what they believe is likely to have the best overall outcome. This deceptively simple sentence summarizes the theory of rational choice. In this chapter (and the next) I attempt to convey the flavor of the complexities hidden behind this formulation.

Rational choice is instrumental: it is guided by the outcome of action. Actions are valued and chosen not for themselves, but as more or less efficient means to a further end. A simple example is the entrepreneur who wants to maximize profit. To achieve this end, he carefully considers which products to offer, how much of them to produce and how to produce them. A more complex example is the general who has been told to defeat the enemy army at any cost to himself. Before he can deploy his troops, he must form an opinion of the enemy's plans. In addition, he must take steps to give the enemy a wrong idea about his own plans. Since he knows that the enemy generals are aware of these calculations, and are in fact going through similar reasoning themselves, he must try to outguess and outsmart them. A more controversial example is that of the artist who is experimenting with different sketches until he “gets it right.” He is considering alternative means to the same end, the creation of a work that has aesthetic value, rejecting most of them and finally accepting one.