IPCC, AR4, WG1, 1.6. The canonical statement of what uncertainty terms mean in all IPCC reports. This is still more or less the standard, though small modifications were made in the next entry:Google Scholar

Mastrandrea, Michael et al. 2010. “Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties.” A new document for the AR5 on the treatment of uncertainties, which also includes a treatment of levels of “confidence,” which we will discuss in more detail in Chapter 7.Google Scholar

Hájek, Alan. 2003. “Interpretations of Probability,” The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. An excellent appraisal of a century’s work on the interpretation of probability by one of its most prolific recent contributors. Contains an extensive bibliography.Google Scholar

Hoefer, Carl. 2007. “The Third Way on Objective Probability: A Sceptic’s Guide to Objective Chance,” Mind. A compelling defense of the claim that there can exist objective chances in a deterministic world.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Rougier, Jonathon and Crucifix, Michael. 2018. “Uncertainty in Climate Science and Climate Policy.” An excellent discussion of subjective probability in climate science and some of the difficulties associated with assigning them, written by a statistician and a climate scientist writing (in part) for a philosophical audience.CrossRefGoogle Scholar