Revolutions are quite rare in Latin America. This may seem surprising given the magnitude of economic and political torment throughout a region where social structures are often rigid and repressive, the exploitation of the many by the few quite common, and the frequent subordination of national to foreign economic interests a fact of life. Whether one's theory holds that revolution is caused by imperialism, class conflict, “relative deprivation,” or merely the escalation of political conflict, Latin America has always seemed ripe for it. Nevertheless, real revolutions are infrequent, though not for a lack of trying. In the past half century insurgents have succeeded only in Cuba and Nicaragua.

Why so few? To begin with, conditions for revolution are seldom as optimal as they appear to the outside observer. The poor do not revolt just because they are poor; quite the contrary: Resignation to their fate and fear of persecution often prevent their recruitment to revolutionary causes. Equally obstructive is the ability of ruling elites to defend themselves against rebels. They may dispute issues with one another and with the middle class, but such discord seldom prevents their banding together to protect one another. Furthermore, the armed forces have learned how to fight against insurgents. Since Fidel Castro's triumph in Cuba over three decades ago, thousands of Latin American soldiers have been taught counterinsurgency warfare by experts from the United States, France, Israel, and elsewhere.