In this concluding chapter, we reflect on the past and look to the future. An important conclusion is that most Western politicians are being guided by the normative principles of the Liberal school and neglecting the fundamental powerpolitical principles of the Realist school. The result is a poor analysis of international relations, failed thinking on power, inconsistent, short-term thinking, and little self-reflection. This is the product of centuries of global domination in the absence of any real challenges. What this might lead to is indicated by the cases in which Russia and China are playing major roles. The leaders of these countries do think and act in line with the power-political principles of the Realist school. The consequence is that Western leaders are judging the actions of their Russian and Chinese colleagues on moral grounds, while European leaders in particular no longer have the resources to translate their moral outrage into action. This is a problem in a world whose nature is changing fundamentally.

The most important policy document on American defence, the 2012 Quadrennial Defense Review, explicitly defines emerging powers, and China in particular, as countries that co-define the form and organization of the international system. Like the abovementioned Global Trends 2030 study by the joint American intelligence services, the document concludes that the United States will remain the most important player, but that it must increasingly work with key allies in order to guarantee peace and security. The United States must also have the capability to deter countries or contain aggression in key regions where there are ‘anti-access environments’. This mainly refers to the South China Sea and the Persian Gulf. The concept of the AirSea Battle was developed in the context of the ‘pivot’, or process of rebalancing, and in response to these ‘anti-access environments’. The Quadrennial Defense Review marked a change of course away from the large-scale deployment of anti-terror and stabilization operations in countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, towards more traditional warfare directed against emerging powers that might be able to challenge the United States. Europe has barely picked up on these discussions.