Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Values, history and perception
- 2 Kinds of uncertainty
- 3 Conventions and the risk management cycle
- 4 Experts, stakeholders and elicitation
- 5 Conceptual models and hazard assessment
- 6 Risk ranking
- 7 Ecotoxicology
- 8 Logic trees and decisions
- 9 Interval arithmetic
- 10 Monte Carlo
- 11 Inference, decisions, monitoring and updating
- 12 Decisions and risk management
- Glossary
- References
- Index
12 - Decisions and risk management
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 December 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- 1 Values, history and perception
- 2 Kinds of uncertainty
- 3 Conventions and the risk management cycle
- 4 Experts, stakeholders and elicitation
- 5 Conceptual models and hazard assessment
- 6 Risk ranking
- 7 Ecotoxicology
- 8 Logic trees and decisions
- 9 Interval arithmetic
- 10 Monte Carlo
- 11 Inference, decisions, monitoring and updating
- 12 Decisions and risk management
- Glossary
- References
- Index
Summary
Risk management makes use of the results and insights from risk assessment to manage the environment.
Morgan et al. (1996) argued that risk management requires negotiating human perception and evaluation processes of the kind outlined in Chapters 1 and 4 (Figure 12.1). It is easy to misinterpret Figure 12.1. It emphasizes that human perceptions overlie the physical interactions between human actions and environmental responses. It does not intend to suggest a kind of linear system in which risks are identified and analysed and in which, subsequently, the range of options are passed to an evaluative box in which social and political consequences of decisions are assessed.
In Morgan et al.'s (1996) view, risk analysis includes issues such as accountability and trustworthiness. Those bearing the risk should enter the picture before the risks have been identified and analysed.
This view of risk assessment accords with the risk management cycle (Chapter 3) that suggests the people bearing the risk should be involved from the outset in all stages, including hazard identification and model building. It is important to recognize that human perceptions and values affect experts and analysts as strongly as other participants.
Policy and risk
Policy makers are concerned with ensemble risks. They are obliged to consider all potential sources, including those not examined formally by risk analysts. In many circumstances, risks compete with one another for attention. Some may be political or intangible. Some may affect policy makers personally.
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- Information
- Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2005