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12 - Evidence, uncertainty and risk

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 March 2011

Graham Harris
Affiliation:
University of Tasmania
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Summary

Provisional theories of risk and uncertainty: ‘wicked’ meso-scale problems and a new kind of science

Recognising that all knowledge is partial at best we are left with a variety of trade offs – none of our predictions is going to be foolproof. We continue to seek ways and means of making predictions about the world which provide useful guidance for actions and investment. The fact that the knowledge upon which we base our investments is noisy and incomplete at best does not alter the fact that investments still have to be made. This is a significant problem for regional and catchment-based management authorities. Subsidiarity is pushing decision making down to these bodies and they must cope with the lack of good data as best they can. In a world of ‘becoming’, of climate change and climate variability, even with new technologies it is going to be difficult to design and complete adequate performance monitoring after management interventions. Across the worlds of science, the community and the psychology of individuals there is a growing appreciation of increased complexity, recursive interaction and the importance of context. Science is developing concepts of complex adaptive systems, emergence and fractals but, in practice, data gathering in the field is not keeping up with the conceptual revolution. The emphasis here is on a more fluid and evolving epistemology built around becoming rather than being, on process rather than structure and on change rather than stasis.

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Chapter
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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

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  • Evidence, uncertainty and risk
  • Graham Harris, University of Tasmania
  • Book: Seeking Sustainability in an Age of Complexity
  • Online publication: 21 March 2011
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511815140.012
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  • Evidence, uncertainty and risk
  • Graham Harris, University of Tasmania
  • Book: Seeking Sustainability in an Age of Complexity
  • Online publication: 21 March 2011
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511815140.012
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Evidence, uncertainty and risk
  • Graham Harris, University of Tasmania
  • Book: Seeking Sustainability in an Age of Complexity
  • Online publication: 21 March 2011
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511815140.012
Available formats
×