This chapter examines how the MUST represents terrorism in the estimates. It starts by identifying and discussing how the concept of terrorism is represented over time. The analysis pays special attention to how critical events (such as 9/11) have or have not influenced the understanding and use of the term terrorism. Further, the investigation seeks to identify how the representation of terrorism is used throughout the estimates and whether components of the representation are present in other parts of the assessment under a different name. Lastly, the chapter aims to identify and discuss gaps in relation to the representation of terrorism.

THE EARLY YEARS

In the 1998 estimate, the concept of terrorism is only mentioned on one occasion, which is in the context of the conflicts in the Middle East and Northern Africa. In the assessment, there is a growing concern that these conflicts might eventually influence Sweden and Swedish security: ‘through immigration and the spread of conflict related terrorism stemming from conflicts in the homeland’.

The amount of text on terrorism is too limited to indicate what kind of understanding the estimate connotes to the concept of terrorism.

Under the heading ‘Crises and Conflicts’, the 1999 estimate frames terrorism within the concept of ‘New Threats’. The new threats are framed in a world where the Cold War has ended and, in the aftermath, a number of smaller conflicts have surfaced. The estimate represents the resurfacing of the phenomenon of terrorism as being a consequence of this new type of conflict. It is acknowledged in the estimate that nonstate actors are a part of these emerging conflicts and also claims that they may be categorised as terrorist or criminal organisations. Later in the 1999 estimate, international political development is discussed in respect to how that might influence the threats that might appear in Sweden or in a Swedish context, and under what circumstances Sweden might be subjected to acts of terrorism.