The Interval Method and Systemology

Protection from the misrepresentation of economic indicators

A real process may not be subject to measuring, nor be exactly measured, for the economic situation is continually subject to critical alteration, with periodical considerable perturbations.

It is to be recognized that there are no methods for precise measuring of the economic processes. Thus, when quantitatively formulating the precisely indeterminate processes, it must be identified whether its evaluation is distorted. The interval-based method is particularly useful for processes that cannot be precisely measured or predicted due to subjective or even objective reasons, for it will enable to describe the process while discovering its essence with no distortions.

A point estimate of an economic indicator often results in the loss of several of its attributes; hence, the book presents the interval method enabling quantifying the process with minimal losses in determining the indicator attributes. It is the indicative estimation of the process attributes manifested in the reality that will give a systemic picture of the quantitative and qualitative features of said process.

The interval method will enable a most complete description to be made of the essence and the manifestation of the real processes; hence, fully satisfying is the principle of Occam's razor which can be regarded as a sufficient condition for the application of this method. Given the impossibility of accurate measurement in the economy, the interval method allows us to overcome the complexity of describing economic processes.

The interval determination of indicators is a method of research for precisely indeterminate indicators under the state of uncertainty natural for the economy. The interval representation of the indicator will enable a description to be made of its most likely values. The interval method of economic indicators will open a logical path from the predicament of explaining its quantitatively precise indefinability. It will help to deploy a complete picture of causal links in the economy.

The capabilities of the existing methods of evaluation and forecasting the economic indicators cannot be seen as an absolute cure-all. This is no less hazardous than their complete disregard. Meanwhile, for an efficient quantitative analysis of economic processes, it is necessary to determine the content of economic causal links and the dependencies of the indicators.