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3 - The Economic Impact of Fundamental Tax Reform

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 October 2009

George R. Zodrow
Affiliation:
Rice University, Houston
Peter Mieszkowski
Affiliation:
Rice University, Houston
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Summary

In this chapter we present a new intertemporal general equilibrium model for analyzing the economic impact of tax policies in the United States. We preserve the key features of more highly aggregated models like that of Jorgenson and Yun (1990, 1991a). One important dimension for disaggregation is to introduce a distinction between industries and commodities in order to model business responses to tax-induced price changes. We also distinguish among households by level of wealth and demographic characteristics, so that we can model differences in household responses to tax changes and examine the distributional effects of taxes.

We model demands for different types of capital services in each of thirty-five industrial sectors of the U.S. economy and the household sector. These demands depend on tax policies through measures of the cost of capital presented by Jorgenson and Yun (1991b) that incorporate the characteristic features of U.S. tax law. The cost of capital makes it possible to represent the economically relevant features of highly complex tax statutes in a very succinct form. The cost of capital also summarizes information about the future consequences of investment decisions required for current decisions about capital allocation.

To illustrate the application of our new model, we simulate the economic impacts of fundamental tax reforms. We focus on the effects of substituting a tax on consumption for corporate and individual income taxes at the federal, state, and local levels.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2002

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