Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-84b7d79bbc-2l2gl Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-29T16:18:47.445Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

4 - Risk-Neutral Valuation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2014

Glen Swindle
Affiliation:
Scoville Risk Partners
Get access

Summary

Valuation of options structures in energy often follows the same paradigm as in other asset classes. A model for price dynamics is posited, ideally motivated by empirical features of the underlying price dynamics, calibrated to market prices that are available, and then used to price nonstandard structures. The integrity of this approach is predicated on many assumptions, widely discussed in the general mathematical finance literature, that collectively imply the ability of market participants to replicate derivative payoffs by trading the underlying asset [Hul12], [Wil07]. In this chapter we will survey basic derivatives valuation methodology as it pertains to commodities, emphasizing some important facts about commonly traded instruments. All the results here will involve standard arbitrage arguments and apply to any forward or futures contract [Shr04].

The key results that we will establish are

  1. Forward prices are martingales under the risk-neutral measures used to value derivatives on forwards. This is to be expected because there is zero cost of entry for forward contracts, and drifts in risk-neutral price processes result from the cost to fund positions.

  2. Forwards and futures prices are functionally identical. While technically different, the corrections are very small.

  3. American options on forwards should never be exercised early.

  4. American options on futures in which the premium is paid at trade inception, commonly referred to as equity-style options, can be optimal to exercise early. The alternative futures-style options, in which the premium is paid at expiration, are never optimal to exercise early. Both types of options are traded on various exchanges.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2014

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • Risk-Neutral Valuation
  • Glen Swindle
  • Book: Valuation and Risk Management in Energy Markets
  • Online publication: 05 June 2014
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139568302.007
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • Risk-Neutral Valuation
  • Glen Swindle
  • Book: Valuation and Risk Management in Energy Markets
  • Online publication: 05 June 2014
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139568302.007
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Risk-Neutral Valuation
  • Glen Swindle
  • Book: Valuation and Risk Management in Energy Markets
  • Online publication: 05 June 2014
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139568302.007
Available formats
×