Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- 1 Tectonic events and nuclear facilities
- 2 The nature of tectonic hazards
- 3 The nature of volcanism
- 4 Tectonic uplift and subsidence
- 5 Glacial isostatic adjustment: implications for glacially induced faulting and nuclear waste repositories
- 6 Using global positioning system data to assess tectonic hazards
- 7 Tectonic setting of volcanic centers in subduction zones: three-dimensional structure of mantle wedge and arc crust
- 8 Conceptual model for small-volume alkali basalt petrogenesis: implications for volcanic hazards at the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository
- 9 Aspects of volcanic hazard assessment for the Bataan nuclear power plant, Luzon Peninsula, Philippines
- 10 Multi-disciplinary probabilistic tectonic hazard analysis
- 11 Tsunami hazard assessment
- 12 Regional-scale volcanology in support of site-specific investigations
- 13 Exploring long-term hazards using a Quaternary volcano database
- 14 Estimating spatial density with kernel methods
- 15 Cox process models for the estimation of long-term volcanic hazard
- 16 Spatial distribution of eruptive centers about the Idaho National Laboratory
- 17 Modeling the flow of basaltic magma into subsurface nuclear facilities
- 18 Intrusion dynamics for volatile-poor basaltic magma into subsurface nuclear installations
- 19 Volcanic risk assessment at Yucca Mountain, NV, USA: integration of geophysics, geology and modeling
- 20 Geological issues in practice: experience in siting US nuclear facilities
- 21 Characterizing active tectonic structures for nuclear facilities in Japan
- 22 Issues for coastal sites
- 23 Stable tectonic settings: designing site investigations to establish the tectonic basis for design and safety evaluation of geological repositories in Scandinavia
- 24 The impact of subsidence, uplift and erosion on geological repositories for radioactive wastes
- 25 Recommendations for assessing volcanic hazards at sites of nuclear installations
- 26 Formal expert assessment in probabilistic seismic and volcanic hazard analysis
- Index
- Map
15 - Cox process models for the estimation of long-term volcanic hazard
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 27 May 2010
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- 1 Tectonic events and nuclear facilities
- 2 The nature of tectonic hazards
- 3 The nature of volcanism
- 4 Tectonic uplift and subsidence
- 5 Glacial isostatic adjustment: implications for glacially induced faulting and nuclear waste repositories
- 6 Using global positioning system data to assess tectonic hazards
- 7 Tectonic setting of volcanic centers in subduction zones: three-dimensional structure of mantle wedge and arc crust
- 8 Conceptual model for small-volume alkali basalt petrogenesis: implications for volcanic hazards at the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository
- 9 Aspects of volcanic hazard assessment for the Bataan nuclear power plant, Luzon Peninsula, Philippines
- 10 Multi-disciplinary probabilistic tectonic hazard analysis
- 11 Tsunami hazard assessment
- 12 Regional-scale volcanology in support of site-specific investigations
- 13 Exploring long-term hazards using a Quaternary volcano database
- 14 Estimating spatial density with kernel methods
- 15 Cox process models for the estimation of long-term volcanic hazard
- 16 Spatial distribution of eruptive centers about the Idaho National Laboratory
- 17 Modeling the flow of basaltic magma into subsurface nuclear facilities
- 18 Intrusion dynamics for volatile-poor basaltic magma into subsurface nuclear installations
- 19 Volcanic risk assessment at Yucca Mountain, NV, USA: integration of geophysics, geology and modeling
- 20 Geological issues in practice: experience in siting US nuclear facilities
- 21 Characterizing active tectonic structures for nuclear facilities in Japan
- 22 Issues for coastal sites
- 23 Stable tectonic settings: designing site investigations to establish the tectonic basis for design and safety evaluation of geological repositories in Scandinavia
- 24 The impact of subsidence, uplift and erosion on geological repositories for radioactive wastes
- 25 Recommendations for assessing volcanic hazards at sites of nuclear installations
- 26 Formal expert assessment in probabilistic seismic and volcanic hazard analysis
- Index
- Map
Summary
Long-term volcanic hazard is gaining relevance due to increasing societal demands on timescales of hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years as regards the siting for critical facilities (Chapman et al., Chapter 1, this volume). Volcanic hazard represents the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging volcanic event within a specific period of time in a given region (UNDRO, 1979). For sites near volcanically active regions, longterm volcanic hazards often constitute the dominant source of uncertainty as input for risk assessments. Uncertainty is mainly related to imperfect knowledge of non-linear volcanic processes, to space-time variability of the distribution and intensity for volcanic events and to a limited amount of monitoring information. For these reasons the estimation of volcanic hazard is based on a probabilistic formalism (Sparks, 2003; Sparks and Aspinall, 2004).
Stochastic models have been developed in connection with the proposed high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository at the Yucca Mountain site (Nevada, USA) in the vicinity of a Quaternary volcanic field to assess the potential for a repository disruption due to basaltic volcanism (Perry et al., 2000). The simplest approach for the estimation of volcanic hazard used a homogeneous Poisson model (Crowe et al., 1982) under the assumption of complete spatial and temporal randomness of the events. A non-homogeneous Weibull- Poisson model applied by Ho (1991) at Yucca Mountain made it possible to estimate the recurrence rate of new volcanoes being formed as a function of time.
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- Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities , pp. 369 - 384Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2009
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