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In March 2023 the EU-funded CHERISH project published its free user-guide and methodology for investigating heritage and climate change in the coastal and maritime environment (Barker and Corns 2023). This paper provides an overview of the publication, specifically the CHERISH toolkit – the 15 approaches employed by the multi-disciplinary project to investigate at-risk heritage sites in Wales and Ireland. Using the eroding coastal hillfort of Dinas Dinlle in Wales as a case study, the toolkit which combines air, land and sea-based investigation techniques is highlighted. This article will assist users going forward in identifying relevant approaches to the study of their own at-risk sites. It is relevant to a wide-ranging audience anywhere in the world, taking into consideration a variety of requirements such as the environment, budget, and outputs.
Carbon leakage – the increase of greenhouse gas emissions in foreign jurisdictions following the introduction of domestic or regional climate mitigation measures – raises key questions in the climate change debate. This includes whether carbon leakage constitutes a threat to the environmental integrity of climate policies and, if so, how this could be mitigated. Through the use of four hypothetical models of international climate change regime, this article argues that international climate change law is a key factor in answering this two-part question. Firstly, the article demonstrates that the architecture of international climate change law affects whether carbon leakage can be considered as undermining the mitigation objective of climate policies. Secondly, it draws attention to the interaction – and potential tension – between carbon leakage prevention measures and international climate change law.
This article presents a systematic literature review of publications from 2014 to 2021 using “archaeological site” and “climate change” as keywords, in addition to several terms representing forms of stakeholder engagement. Articles were thematically coded to explore trends at the intersection of climate change, archaeology, and local and Traditional stakeholders. Results show that nearly half of the selected publications did not include local and Traditional stakeholder engagement in studies related to climate adaptation planning for archaeological sites. Synthesis of the results with insights gained from other literature on decolonizing archaeology showed that potential reasons for this gap include (1) the academic publishing culture, (2) archaeology as a predominantly Western discipline, and (3) increasingly available tools for climate change adaptation planning for archaeological sites. This article calls on the academic community to consider holistic stewardship using a landscape approach and to use climate change adaptation planning to elevate local and Traditional stakeholder input and values.
Sedentary occupation of the southern Levantine coast spans from the Pre-Pottery Neolithic C to the Early Bronze Age Ib phase (c. 7000–3100 BC). Sites dating to the Early Pottery Neolithic (c. 6400–5500 BC) are scarce, however, potentially reflecting the effects of the 8.2ka climatic event. Here, the authors present the investigations at the submerged site of Habonim North off the Carmel Coast. Typological and radiocarbon dating indicate an Early Pottery Neolithic occupation and evidence for continuity of subsistence and economic strategies with both earlier and later Neolithic cultures. The results indicate the resilience of coastal communities in the face of significant climatic uncertainty and contribute to understanding human responses to environmental change.
Multiple global crises – including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine – have recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a ‘polycrisis’. Yet this neologism remains poorly defined. We provide the concept with a substantive definition, highlight its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and develop a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world's crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combine with slow-moving stresses to push a global system out of its established equilibrium and into a volatile and harmful state of disequilibrium. We then identify three causal pathways – common stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacks – that can connect multiple global systems to produce synchronized crises. Drawing on current examples, we show that the polycrisis concept is a valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, and opening avenues for future research.
Non-technical summary
The term ‘polycrisis’ appears with growing frequently to capture the interconnections between global crises, but the word lacks substantive content. In this article, we convert it from an empty buzzword into a conceptual framework and research program that enables us to better understand the causal linkages between contemporary crises. We draw upon the intersection of climate change, the covid-19 pandemic, and Russia's war in Ukraine to illustrate these causal interconnections and explore key features of the world's present polycrisis.
Technical summary
Multiple global crises – including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia's war on Ukraine – have recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a ‘polycrisis’. Yet this neologism remains poorly defined. We provide the concept with a substantive definition, highlight its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and develop a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world's crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combines with slow-moving stresses to push a global system out of its established equilibrium and into a volatile and harmful state of disequilibrium. We then identify three causal pathways – common stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacks – that can connect multiple global systems to produce synchronized crises. Drawing on current examples, we show that the polycrisis concept is a valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, and opening avenues for future research.
Social media summary
No longer a mere buzzword, the ‘polycrisis’ concept highlights causal interactions among crises to help navigate a tumultuous future.
This essay describes the author's quest for effective, large-scale political actions to stop the burning of fossil fuels. What are the nuts and bolts of collective organizing at scales large enough to effect substantial change? Frustrated both by widespread public pessimism and by the politics most often articulated in literary studies, Levine finds a working political model in the divestment movement; a methodological model in formalist analysis; and a theory of collective aesthetics and politics in post-Victorian Jane Addams.
What would a sustainable economy look like? What would it take to live within our environmental means? Legacy answers these and other questions, setting out the key features of the sustainable economy. It explains what it would take to properly maintain different types of capital, why polluters would have to pay, why the current generation would have to fund the necessary maintenance of our natural assets and why we would have to save to invest. The message is a tough one: we are way off course in terms of meeting these conditions and we cannot escape the consequences. This book explains what we would have to do to mend our ways. In doing so, it highlights the feebleness of current approaches to net zero and biodiversity loss as well as our great neglect of the core infrastructures, and why we are not meeting our duties to the next generation. This title is Open Access.
The growing plastic production, the lack of their waste management, and fragmented regulatory responses have increased their abundance in the environment. Plastic pollution has created significant environmental concerns leading to planetary boundary threats. As a result, an increasing number of governments and non-state actors have begun negotiations on a legally binding treaty to cover the full-life-cycle of plastics by 2024. While the negotiations were mandated at the United Nations Environment Assembly 5.2 in March of 2022, how the new agreement would link to existing governance bodies addressing plastic pollution at the global, regional, national and local levels requires careful consideration. This analysis examines the main multi-level governance structures in place to govern plastics while highlighting their principal roles as well as shortcomings and gaps. It then explores ways a new global agreement could complement existing governance structures without imposing and duplicating the work of previous agreements.
Climate change and human-modified landscapes have led to an increase in global flood and drought risks, while biodiversity has declined. The concept of using nature-based solutions (NbS) to improve the water retention capacity at the landscape scale, also known as ‘sponge functioning of catchments,’ has been recognised to help reduce and delay peak flows and stimulate infiltration to the groundwater, thus reducing flood and drought risks. Although various effects of NbS have been demonstrated, there is limited evaluation of the combined multiple benefits for flood risk reduction, drought risk reduction, and biodiversity. To address this gap, we analysed various online databases on NbS and additional literature on the evaluated combined effects of NbS. We found that the quantitative evaluation of NbS is fragmented and not standard practice in many projects. Although many successfully implemented NbS have been reported in different environments globally, most cases lack evidence for their response to the combined impacts of floods, droughts, and biodiversity. Therefore, we propose four components to facilitate planning, design, implementation, and monitoring of NbS that improve sponge functioning for floods and droughts. First, we suggest increased understanding of how NbS affects the hydrological processes of both flood and drought events along the full range of potential conditions. Second, we recommend evaluating the effect of potential NbS measures at a landscape scale. Third, we propose that integrated modelling and upscaling techniques should be improved to quantify the impacts of NbS. Finally, we suggest using a consistent and socially relevant set of indicators to evaluate the NbS and communicate this with stakeholders. In conclusion, our analysis demonstrates a need for more comprehensive and standardised evaluation of NbS, particularly in relation to their combined impacts on floods, droughts, and biodiversity.
How certain can we be about projections of future climate change from computer models? In 1979, President Jimmy Carter asked the US National Academy of Science to address this question, and the quest for an answer laid the foundation for a new way of comparing and assessing computational models of climate change. My own work on climate models began with a similar question, and led me to investigate how climate scientists build and test their models. My research took me to climate modelling labs in five different countries, where I interviewed dozens of scientists. In this chapter, we will examine the motivating questions for that work, and explore the original benchmark experiment for climate models – known as Charney sensitivity – developed in response to President Carter’s question.
Scientists have been building computational models of the climate and studying the consequences of our use of fossil fuels for more than a century. In the twenty-first century, these consequences are all around us, and the need for urgent action has become clear. In this chapter, we show how experiments with climate models give us a clear picture of the choices we face, and how the climate system will respond to those choices. We’ll show how advice from climate models shapes policy targets, such as the 2°C limit and goal of reaching net-zero emissions. In the political arena, scientific advice has to compete with many other sources of information and misinformation, which has slowed meaningful action, so we’ll also examine the political processes by which we collectively make decisions, and the role each of us plays in those processes. Ultimately, climate models can guide us on how to tackle climate change, but only if we find the wisdom to understand and act on that guidance.
Data were obtained from the literature to identify past changes in and the present status of the coastal carbon cycle. They indicate that marine coastal ecosystems driving the coastal carbon cycle cover, on average, 5.8% of the Earth’s surface and contributed 55.2% to carbon transport from the climate-active carbon cycle to the geological carbon cycle. The data suggest that humans not only increase the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere but also mitigate (and before 1860 even balanced) their CO2 emissions by increasing CO2 storage within marine coastal ecosystems. Soil degradation in response to the expansion and intensification of agriculture is assumed to be a key process driving the enhanced CO2 storage in marine coastal ecosystems because it increases the supply of lithogenic matter that is known to favour the burial of organic matter in sediments. After 1860, rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere indicate that enhanced CO2 emissions caused by land-use changes and the burning of fossil fuel disturbed what was a quasi-steady state before. Ecosystem restoration and the potential expansion of forest cover could mitigate the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but this carbon sink to the atmosphere is much too weak to represent an alternative to the reduction of CO2 emission in order to keep global warming below 1.5–2.°C. Although the contribution of benthic marine coastal ecosystems to the global CO2 uptake potential of ecosystem restoration is only around 6%, this could be significant given national carbon budgets. However, the impact on climate is still difficult to quantify because the associated effects on CH4 and N2O emissions have not been established. Addressing these uncertainties is one of the challenges faced by future research, as are related issues concerning estimates of carbon fluxes between the climate-active and the geological carbon cycle and the development of suitable methods to quantify changes in the CO2 uptake of pelagic ecosystems in the ocean.
Around the world, countries have introduced laws and policies designed to prevent species extinction. While there have been some success stories, overall, these laws and policies are routinely failing. Extinction rates continue to climb. However, the law is necessary to regulate the human-environment interactions that form the basis of the drivers of extinction and biodiversity loss, including land-clearing, the discharge of greenhouse gases and the introduction of invasive species. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the literature specifically on biodiversity conservation law, to review and describe the commonalities in laws and legal systems that can be considered successful, or unsuccessful. Laws for the conservation of biodiversity form a critical component for minimising the drivers of extinction, with species extinction being an extreme outcome of biodiversity loss. We reviewed 128 publications from around the world to ascertain and synthesise best practices in law and policy that aim to protect and conserve biodiversity (herein termed ‘biodiversity conservation law’). The literature demonstrated that when it comes to biodiversity conservation law, the concept of ‘best practice’ is elusive, and does not necessarily equate to a reversal in species decline. Further, most western countries utilise the same legal mechanisms (also known as policy tools) for biodiversity conservation, although some countries implement these laws more effectively than others. In this paper, we explore and explain several common legal mechanisms discussed across the range of literature, including species listing and recovery plans, protected area regulation, stewardship, restoration, and offset and no net loss schemes. We also explore the necessity of biodiversity and climate mainstreaming across all laws and highlight the need to engage in genuine partnerships and collaborations with First Nations communities. This paper, and the principles explored herein, should assist law and policymakers to regulate more effectively and explain to those in the conservation sciences where research should be directed to improve the science-policy interface.
Blue carbon is identified as a natural climate solution as it provides multiple ecosystem services, including climate mitigation, adaptation, and other co-benefits. There remain ongoing challenges for blue carbon as a natural climate solution, particularly as blue carbon ecosystems are at risk from climate change. Concepts of uniformitarianism were applied to consider how the present and past behaviour of blue carbon ecosystems can inform decision-makers of blue carbon risks. Climate change may increase the capture and storage of blue carbon in the short to medium term; this is largely due to negative feedbacks between elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature, and supplemented by natural processes of sediment supply and accumulation. Opportunities for retreat and increasing carbon storage as sea levels rise are likely to be greater where sea level has a longer history of relative stability, largely in the Southern Hemisphere. Landward retreat will be crucial where millennia of sea-level rise have limited the capacity for in situ blue carbon additionality; this may be thwarted by highly developed coastal zones and coastal squeeze effects. Negative feedbacks may fail under higher emissions, greater warming and rates of sea-level rise exceeding ~5–7 mm yr.−1; this tipping point may be surpassed within the next century under a high emissions scenario. Retreat of blue carbon ecosystems to higher elevations where they are afforded protection from the effects of sea-level rise will be critical for blue carbon additionality. Carbon markets are prepared to incentivise restoration of blue carbon ecosystems as they adapt to climate change; however, knowledge gaps remain, particularly regarding the behaviour of blue carbon ecosystems in the global south. Given the momentum in blue carbon research, scientists and practitioners are well placed to continue addressing blue carbon risks.
To provide context for the later chapters and analysis, the chapter outlines the key characteristics of Europe’s environment and nature, and the effects of human actions on it. It firstly describes the biophysical geography and natural history of Europe, including the legacy of the last Ice Age, and the current characteristics of the biogeographical regions and marine regions. It then summarises the main impacts of human activities on biodiversity in Europe, starting with early agriculture and forest clearances that created seminatural ecosystems and cultural landscapes, followed by the profound impacts of the industrial and agricultural revolutions, and more recent changes in land- and sea-use and resulting pressures over the last forty years. Other key pressures are also identified, including in relation to forestry, water and air pollution, fisheries, invasive alien species and climate change. The chapter concludes with an outline of Europe’s remaining biodiversity, identifying hotspots, and the implications for nature conservation approaches and priorities.
Over the millennia, and across all cultures, people have developed an intimate bond with birds and, for many, birds are their principal connection to the natural world. With so many eyes trained on the planet’s avifauna, birds provide us with a unique insight into the unfolding extinction crisis; the sixth such episode in our planet’s 4.5-billion-year history and the first to be driven by the actions of a single species – our own. Avian extinction risk is comprehensively assessed by BirdLife International using the criteria of the IUCN Red List. The situation is alarming – around the world, birds are in steady decline, with approximately one in eight species now at risk of extinction. Each year, more species slip closer to extinction, whilst even once common birds are now disappearing fast. Yet the universal appeal of birds provides cause for hope. Their plight has been a rallying point around which a large and growing conservation movement has coalesced. A century of global bird conservation has demonstrated that when sufficient effort, resources and political will are brought to bear, bird populations can rebound and their habitats can be restored. Although imminent, mass avian extinction is not (yet) inevitable, and may still be averted if we so choose.
People often assume that to give ourselves a fighting chance of avoiding catastrophic climate change, we need either inspired political leadership, or a moral revolution in society. Both would be nice to have, but there are more plausible ways to make faster progress. They involve thinking differently. We need science that gives us risk assessment instead of prediction; economics that understands change instead of assuming stability; and diplomacy that focusses on international collaboration instead of unilateral national action.
Neither scientists, nor economists, nor insurers, nor military planners have assessed the risks of climate change in full. Heads of government are left to guess. A clear understanding of the scale of the risks will not on its own guarantee a proportionate response. But unless we have such an understanding, we can hardly be surprised if our response is inadequate.