We extend a result due to Zazanis (1992) on the analyticity of the expectation of suitable functionals of homogeneous Poisson processes with respect to the intensity of the process. As our main result, we provide Monte Carlo estimators for the derivatives. We apply our results to stochastic models which are of interest in stochastic geometry and insurance.

In this paper we introduce Lévy-driven Cox point processes (LCPs) as Cox point processes with driving intensity function Λ defined by a kernel smoothing of a Lévy basis (an independently scattered, infinitely divisible random measure). We also consider log Lévy-driven Cox point processes (LLCPs) with Λ equal to the exponential of such a kernel smoothing. Special cases are shot noise Cox processes, log Gaussian Cox processes, and log shot noise Cox processes. We study the theoretical properties of Lévy-based Cox processes, including moment properties described by nth-order product densities, mixing properties, specification of inhomogeneity, and spatio-temporal extensions.

In designing a network to link n points in a square of area n, we might be guided by the following two desiderata. First, the total network length should not be much greater than the length of the shortest network connecting all points. Second, the average route length (taken over source-destination pairs) should not be much greater than the average straight-line distance. How small can we make these two excesses? Speaking loosely, for a nondegenerate configuration, the total network length must be at least of order n and the average straight-line distance must be at least of order n1/2, so it seems implausible that a single network might exist in which the excess over the first minimum is o(n) and the excess over the second minimum is o(n1/2). But in fact we can do better: for an arbitrary configuration, we can construct a network where the first excess is o(n) and the second excess is almost as small as O(log n). The construction is conceptually simple and uses stochastic methods: over the minimum-length connected network (Steiner tree) superimpose a sparse stationary and isotropic Poisson line process. Together with a few additions (required for technical reasons), the mean values of the excess for the resulting random network satisfy the above asymptotics; hence, a standard application of the probabilistic method guarantees the existence of deterministic networks as required (speaking constructively, such networks can be constructed using simple rejection sampling). The key ingredient is a new result about the Poisson line process. Consider two points a distance r apart, and delete from the line process all lines which separate these two points. The resulting pattern of lines partitions the plane into cells; the cell containing the two points has mean boundary length approximately equal to 2r + constant(log r). Turning to lower bounds, consider a sequence of networks in satisfying a weak equidistribution assumption. We show that if the first excess is O(n) then the second excess cannot be

This paper is devoted to the study of some asymptotic behaviors of Poisson-Voronoi tessellation in the Euclidean space as the space dimension tends to ∞. We consider a family of homogeneous Poisson-Voronoi tessellations with constant intensity λ in Euclidean spaces of dimensions n = 1, 2, 3, …. First we use the Blaschke-Petkantschin formula to prove that the variance of the volume of the typical cell tends to 0 exponentially in dimension. It is also shown that the volume of intersection of the typical cell with the co-centered ball of volume u converges in distribution to the constant λ−1(1 − e−λu). Next we consider the linear contact distribution function of the Poisson-Voronoi tessellation and compute the limit when the space dimension goes to ∞. As a by-product, the chord length distribution and the geometric covariogram of the typical cell are obtained in the limit.

Let D be the punctured unit disk. It is easy to see that no pair x, y in D can cover D in the sense that D cannot be contained in the union of the unit disks centred at x and y. With this fact in mind, let Vn = {X1, X2, …, Xn}, where X1, X2, … are random points sampled independently from a uniform distribution on D. We prove that, with asymptotic probability 1, there exist two points in Vn that cover all of Vn.

A systematic study of random Laguerre tessellations, weighted generalisations of the well-known Voronoi tessellations, is presented. We prove that every normal tessellation with convex cells in dimension three and higher is a Laguerre tessellation. Tessellations generated by stationary marked Poisson processes are then studied in detail. For these tessellations, we obtain integral formulae for geometric characteristics and densities of the typical k-faces. We present a formula for the linear contact distribution function and prove various limit results for convergence of Laguerre to Poisson-Voronoi tessellations. The obtained integral formulae are subsequently evaluated numerically for the planar case, demonstrating their applicability for practical purposes.

We study a flexible class of finite-disc process models with interaction between the discs. We let 𝒰 denote the random set given by the union of discs, and use for the disc process an exponential family density with the canonical sufficient statistic depending only on geometric properties of 𝒰 such as the area, perimeter, Euler-Poincaré characteristic, and the number of holes. This includes the quermass-interaction process and the continuum random-cluster model as special cases. Viewing our model as a connected component Markov point process, and thereby establishing local and spatial Markov properties, becomes useful for handling the problem of edge effects when only 𝒰 is observed within a bounded observation window. The power tessellation and its dual graph become major tools when establishing inclusion-exclusion formulae, formulae for computing geometric characteristics of 𝒰, and stability properties of the underlying disc process density. Algorithms for constructing the power tessellation of 𝒰 and for simulating the disc process are discussed, and the software is made public available.

Small-world graphs are examples of random graphs which mimic empirically observed features of social networks. We propose an intrinsic definition of small-world graphs, based on a probabilistic formulation of scaling properties of the graph, which does not rely on any particular construction. Our definition is shown to encompass existing models of small-world graphs, proposed by Watts (1999) and studied by Barbour and Reinert (2001), which are based on random perturbations of a regular lattice. We also propose alternative constructions of small-world graphs which are not based on lattices and study their scaling properties.

The problem of estimating the Minkowski content L0(G) of a body G ⊂ ℝd is considered. For d = 2, the Minkowski content represents the boundary length of G. It is assumed that a ball of radius r can roll inside and outside the boundary of G. We use this shape restriction to propose a new estimator for L0(G). This estimator is based on the information provided by a random sample, taken on a square containing G, in which we know whether a sample point is in G or not. We obtain the almost sure convergence rate for the proposed estimator.

Most metrics between finite point measures currently used in the literature have the flaw that they do not treat differing total masses in an adequate manner for applications. This paper introduces a new metric d̅1 that combines positional differences of points under a closest match with the relative difference in total mass in a way that fixes this flaw. A comprehensive collection of theoretical results about d̅1 and its induced Wasserstein metric d̅2 for point process distributions are given, including examples of useful d̅1-Lipschitz continuous functions, d̅2 upper bounds for the Poisson process approximation, and d̅2 upper and lower bounds between distributions of point processes of independent and identically distributed points. Furthermore, we present a statistical test for multiple point pattern data that demonstrates the potential of d̅1 in applications.

We build a family of Markov chains on a sphere using distance-based long-range connection probabilities to model the decentralized message-passing problem that has recently gained significant attention in the small-world literature. Starting at an arbitrary source point on the sphere, the expected message delivery time to an arbitrary target on the sphere is characterized by a particular expected hitting time of our Markov chains. We prove that, within this family, there is a unique efficient Markov chain whose expected hitting time is polylogarithmic in the relative size of the sphere. For all other chains, this expected hitting time is at least polynomial. We conclude by defining two structural properties, called scale invariance and steady improvement, of the probability density function of long-range connections and prove that they are sufficient and necessary for efficient decentralized message delivery.

We discuss the determination of the mean normal measure of a stationary random set Z ⊂ ℝd by taking measurements at the intersections of Z with k-dimensional planes. We show that mean normal measures of sections with vertical planes determine the mean normal measure of Z if k ≥ 3 or if k = 2 and an additional mild assumption holds. The mean normal measures of finitely many flat sections are not sufficient for this purpose. On the other hand, a discrete mean normal measure can be verified (i.e. an a priori guess can be confirmed or discarded) using mean normal measures of intersections with m suitably chosen planes when m ≥ ⌊d / k⌋ + 1. This even holds for almost all m-tuples of k-dimensional planes are viable for verification. A consistent estimator for the mean normal measure of Z, based on stereological measurements in vertical sections, is also presented.

Pharmaceutical companies have to face huge risks and enormous costs of production before they can produce a drug. Efficient allocation of resources is essential to help in maximizing profits. Yu and Gittins (2007) described a model and associated software for determining efficient allocations for a preclinical research project. This is the starting point for this paper. We provide explicit optimal policies for the selection of successive candidate drugs for two restricted versions of the Yu and Gittins (2007) model. To some extent these policies are likely to be applicable to the unrestricted model.

A random tessellation of ℝd is said to be homogeneous if its distribution is invariant under all shifts of ℝd. The iteration of homogeneous random tessellations is described in a new manner that makes it evident that the resulting random tessellation is homogeneous again. Furthermore, a tessellation-valued process is constructed, the random states of which are homogeneous random tessellations stable under iteration (STIT). It can be interpreted as a process of subsequent division of cells.

We study the problem of maximizing the long-run average growth of total wealth for a logarithmic utility function under the existence of fixed and proportional transaction costs. The market model consists of one riskless asset and d risky assets. Impulsive control theory is applied to this problem. We derive a quasivariational inequality (QVI) of ‘ergodic’ type and obtain a weak solution for the inequality. Using this solution, we obtain an optimal investment strategy to achieve the optimal growth.

Throughout recent years, various sequential Monte Carlo methods, i.e. particle filters, have been widely applied to various applications involving the evaluation of the generally intractable stochastic discrete-time filter. Although convergence results exist for finite-time intervals, a stronger form of convergence, namely, uniform convergence, is required for bounding the error on an infinite-time interval. In this paper we prove easily verifiable conditions for the filter applications that are sufficient for the uniform convergence of certain particle filters. Essentially, the conditions require the observations to be accurate enough. No mixing or ergodicity conditions are imposed on the signal process.

We study a process where balls are repeatedly thrown into n boxes independently according to some probability distribution p. We start with n balls, and at each step, all balls landing in the same box are fused into a single ball; the process terminates when there is only one ball left (coalescence). Let c := ∑jpj2, the collision probability of two fixed balls. We show that the expected coalescence time is asymptotically 2c−1, under two constraints on p that exclude a thin set of distributions p. One of the constraints is c = o(ln−2n). This ln−2n is shown to be a threshold value: for c = ω(ln−2n), there exists p with c(p) = c such that the expected coalescence time far exceeds c−1. Connections to coalescent processes in population biology and theoretical computer science are discussed.

A multiarmed bandit problem is studied when the arms are not always available. The arms are first assumed to be intermittently available with some state/action-dependent probabilities. It is proven that no index policy can attain the maximum expected total discounted reward in every instance of that problem. The Whittle index policy is derived, and its properties are studied. Then it is assumed that the arms may break down, but repair is an option at some cost, and the new Whittle index policy is derived. Both problems are indexable. The proposed index policies cannot be dominated by any other index policy over all multiarmed bandit problems considered here. Whittle indices are evaluated for Bernoulli arms with unknown success probabilities.

We discuss some issues regarding the accuracy of a quantile-based estimation of risk capital. In this context, extreme value theory (EVT) emerges naturally. The paper sheds some further light on the ongoing discussion concerning the use of a semi-parametric approach like EVT and the use of specific parametric models such as the g-and-h. In particular, we discusses problems and pitfalls evolving from such parametric models when using EVT and highlight the importance of the underlying second-order tail behavior.

Consider an infinite-source marked Poisson process to model end user inputs to a data network. At Poisson times, connections are initated. The connection is characterized by a triple (F, L, R) denoting the total quantity of transmitted data in a connection, the length or duration of the connection, and the transmission rate; the three quantities are related by F = LR. How critical is the dependence structure of the mark for network characteristics such as burstiness, distribution tails of cumulative input, and long-range dependence properties of traffic measured in consecutive time slots? In a previous publication (D'Auria and Resnick (2006)) we assumed that F and R were independent. Here we assume that L and R are independent. The change in dependence assumptions means that the model properties change dramatically: tails of cumulative input per time slot are dramatically heavier, traffic cannot be approximated by a Gaussian distribution, and the decay of dependence cannot be measured in the traditional way using correlation functions. Different network applications are likely to have different mark dependence structure. We argue that the present independence assumption on L and R is likely to be appropriate for network applications such as streaming media or peer-to-peer networks. Our conclusion is that it is desirable to separate network traffic by application and to model each application with its own appropriate dependence structure.