The past twelve months have witnessed the devastation of Rwanda. More than one half million people were murdered by the Rwandan army and the associated civilian militias, while over two million people fled the country after the death of former President Juvenal Habyarimana. The Rwandan Patriotic Front, which emerged in exile over the past thirty years and now dominates the government in Kigali, faces a dilemma: how does it consolidate its position amongst its core supporters, many of whom grew up in exile and recently returned to Rwanda, while at the same time gain the confidence of the domestic population, many of whom have recently fled? Resolving this dilemma is the central task for the regime, and is critical to the future political and economic development of the country.

In spite of its stated desire to create a broad-based government, the core of RPF support lies on a perilously narrow base, located as much outside of the country as inside. Domestically, the country is in ruins. The exodus of refugees resulted in the collapse of production and of the state.