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Business Conditions in Presidential Election Years

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

William F. Ogburn  and
A. J. Jaffe
William F. Ogburn
Affiliation:
University of Chicago
A. J. Jaffe
Affiliation:
University of Chicago
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Extract

The influence of the business cycle on politics has been studied by Rice and Tibbitts. But the influence of politics on the business cycle has not been systematically investigated, although Ayres has shown that prosperous times are about equally divided between Republican and Democratic administrations, and Mitchell has shown that the curve of business during presidential administrations is not at all like the business cycle. There is a popular impression that business is not as good during the year of a presidential election as in other years. It is the purpose of this paper to present the results of an investigation of this question.

Type
American Government and Politics
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 30 , Issue 2 , April 1936 , pp. 269 - 275
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1936

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References

1 Rice, Stuart, “Some Applications of Statistical Methods in Political Research,” in this Review, May, 1926Google Scholar.

2 Tibbitts, Clark, “Majority Votes and the Business Cycle,” American Journal of Sociology, Jan., 1931CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

3 Ayres, Leonard, Business Bulletin of the Cleveland Trust Co., Oct., 1924Google Scholar.

4 Mitchell, Wesley C., “Testing Business Cycles,” Bulletin No. 31, National Bureau of Economic Research, March 1, 1929Google Scholar.

5 The stock prices are the Axe-Houghton index and are based upon ten to thirty-three stocks.

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