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The Quality of Vote Tallies: Causes and Consequences

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 July 2020

CRISTIAN CHALLÚ ,
ENRIQUE SEIRA  and
ALBERTO SIMPSER Open the ORCID record for ALBERTO SIMPSER [Opens in a new window]
CRISTIAN CHALLÚ*
Affiliation:
Carnegie Mellon University
ENRIQUE SEIRA*
Affiliation:
ITAM-CIE
ALBERTO SIMPSER*
Affiliation:
ITAM-CIE
*
Cristian Challú, PhD student, Machine Learning, Carnegie Mellon University, cchallu@andrew.cmu.edu.
Enrique Seira, Professor, Department of Economics and Center for Economic Research, ITAM, enrique.seira@itam.mx.
Alberto Simpser Professor, Department of Political Science and Center for Economic Research, ITAM, alberto.simpser@itam.mx.
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Abstract

The credibility of election outcomes hinges on the accuracy of vote tallies. We provide causal evidence on the drivers and the downstream consequences of variation in the quality of vote tallies. Using data for the universe of polling stations in Mexico in five national elections, we document that over 40% of polling-station-level tallies display inconsistencies. Our evidence strongly suggests these inconsistencies are nonpartisan. Using data for more than 1.5 million poll workers, we show that lower educational attainment, higher workload, and higher complexity of the tally cause more inconsistencies. Finally, using an original survey of close to 80,000 poll workers together with detailed administrative data, we find that inconsistencies cause recounts and recounts lead to lower trust in electoral institutions. We discuss policy implications.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 114 , Issue 4 , November 2020 , pp. 1071 - 1085
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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Footnotes

The authors thank Francisco Cantú, Scott Gehlbach, Andrei Gomberg, Miguel Rueda, seminar participants at the University of Texas at Austin, ITAM, and the Instituto Nacional Electoral, and conference participants at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting and the Society for Institutional and Organizational Economics Conference for helpful comments. An online appendix contains supplementary materials referenced throughout the text. We thank the Instituto Nacional Electoral for its help in making this research possible. Replication files are available at the American Political Science Review Dataverse: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/4M0HEN.

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