Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-lnqnp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-20T14:02:28.688Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Wane of Command: Evidence on Drone Strikes and Control within Terrorist Organizations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 October 2020

ANOUK S. RIGTERINK Open the ORCID record for ANOUK S. RIGTERINK [Opens in a new window]
ANOUK S. RIGTERINK*
Affiliation:
Durham University
*
Anouk S. Rigterink, Assistant Professor in Quantitative Comparative Politics, School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University, anouk.rigterink@durham.ac.uk.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper investigates how counterterrorism targeting terrorist leaders affects terrorist attacks. This effect is theoretically ambiguous and depends on whether terrorist groups are modeled as unitary actors or not. The paper exploits a natural experiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) “hitting” and “missing” terrorist leaders in Pakistan. Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacks they commit after a drone “hit” on their leader compared with after a “miss.” This increase is statistically significant for 3 out of 6 months after a hit, when it ranges between 47.7% and 70.3%. Additional analysis of heterogenous effects across groups and leaders, and the impact of drone hits on the type of attack, terrorist group infighting, and splintering, suggest that principal-agent problems—(new) terrorist leaders struggling to control and discipline their operatives—account for these results better than alternative theoretical explanations.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 115 , Issue 1 , February 2021 , pp. 31 - 50
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

I am grateful to Dapo Akande, Margherita Belgioioso, Kyle Beardsley, Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Sabrina Eisenbarth, Tarek Ghani, Victoire Girard, Maia King, Julien Labonne, Anandi Mani, Guy Michaels, Linda Nostbakken, Rick van der Ploeg, Chiara Ravetti, Jacob N. Shapiro, Nelson Ruiz, Gerhard Toews, Tony Venables, Danny Quah, Simon Quinn, Thierry Verdier, Diana Weinhold, the editor, and several anonymous reviewers, as well as seminar participants at the London School of Economics and Political Science, University of Oxford, the University of East Anglia, the American Political Science Association Annual Conference 2018, the Political Studies Association Annual Conference 2018, and the Oxford Political Violence Conference for extremely helpful comments on this paper. I also thank Paul Staniland, Asfandyar Mir, and Sameer Lalwani for generously sharing their data. Most importantly, I thank Sam Vincent, who is the inspiration behind this paper and without whom this would never have been written. Note that some of the research for this paper was done when the author was affiliated with the London School of Economics and Political Science (partially funded by FP7-IDEAS-ERC-269441), the University of Oxford, and Princeton University, respectively. All errors remain my own. Replication materials are available at the American Political Science Review Dataverse: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MNRIEP.

References

Abrahms, Max. 2012. “The Political Effectiveness of Terrorism Revisited.” Comparative Political Studies 45 (3): 366–393.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abrahms, Max, and Conrad, Justin. 2017. “The Strategic Logic of Credit Claiming: A New Theory for Anonymous Terrorist Attacks.” Security Studies 26 (2): 279–304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abrahms, Max, and Mierau, Jochen. 2017. “Leadership Matters: The Effects of Targeted Killings on Militant Group Tactics.” Terrorism and Political Violence 29 (1): 830–851.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abrahms, Max, and Potter, Philip B. K.. 2015. “Explaining Terrorism: Leadership Deficits and Militant Group Tactics.” International Organization 69 (2): 311–342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allison, Paul D. 2012. Fixed Effects Regression Models. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Arce, Daniel G., and Sandler, Todd. 2007. “Terrorist Signalling and the Value of Intelligence.” British Journal of Political Science 37 (4): 573–586.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergen, Peter, and Tiedemann, Katherine. 2011. “Washington’s Phantom War Drone Program in Pakistan.” Foreign Affairs 90 (1): 12–18.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2005. “The Terrorist Endgame: A Model with Moral Hazard and Learning.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (2): 237–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byman, Daniel. 2013. “Why Drones Work: The Case for Washington’s Weapon of Choice.” Foreign Affairs 92 (4): 32–43.Google Scholar
Byrne, Max. 2016. “Consent and the Use of Force: An Examination of ‘Intervention by Invitation’ as a Basis for US Drone Strikes in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen.” Journal on the Use of Force and International Law 3 (1): 97–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crenshaw, Martha. 2012. Mapping Militant Organisations.Google Scholar
Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2006. “How al-Qaida Ends. The Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups.” International Security 31 (1): 7–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2013. “Why Drones Fail: When Tactics Drive Strategy.” Foreign Affairs 92 (4): 44–54.Google Scholar
Enders, Walter, and Sandler, Todd. 2004. “What Do We Know about the Substitution Effect in Transnational Terrorism.” In Researching Terrorism: Trends, Achievements, Failures, ed. Silke, Andrew, 119-137. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Fortna, Virginia Page. 2015. “Do Terrorists Win? Rebels’ Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes.” International Organization 69 (3): 519–556.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hafez, Mohammed M., and Hatfield, Joseph M.. 2006. “Do Targeted Assassinations Work? A Multivariate Analysis of Israel’s Controversial Tactic During Al-Aqsa Uprising.” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 29 (4): 359–382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heyns, Christof, Akande, Dapo, Hill-Cawthorne, Lawrence, and Chengeta, Thompson. 2016. “The International Law Framework Regulating the Use of Armed Drones.” International and Comparative Law Quarterly 65 (4): 791–827.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hilbe, Joseph M. 2011. Negative Binomial Regression (Second edition). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Daniel, and Kaplan, Edward H.. 2007. “Suicide Bombings and Targeted Killings in (Counter-)Terror Games.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (1): 772–792.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jaeger, David A., and Paserman, M. Daniele. 2009. “The Shape of Things to Come? On the Dynamics of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 4 (4): 315–342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jasko, Katarzyna, and LaFree, Gary. 2019. “Who is More Violent in Extremist Groups? A Comparison of Leaders and Followers.” Aggressive Behavior 46 (3): 141–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, Patrick B. 2012. “Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns.” International Security 36 (4): 47–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, Patrick B., and Sarbahi, Anoop K.. 2016. “The Impact of US Drone Strikes on Terrorism in Pakistan.” International Studies Quarterly 60 (2): 203–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Benjamin F., and Olken, Benjamin A.. 2009. “Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1 (2): 29–54.Google Scholar
Jordan, Jenna. 2019. Leadership Decaptitation: Strategic Targeting of Terrorist Organizations. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2000. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kaplan, Edward H., Mintz, Alex, and Mishal, Shaul. 2006. “Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel.” Interfaces 36 (6): 553–561.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lapan, Harvey E., and Sandler, Todd. 1993. “Terrorism and Signalling.” European Journal of Political Economy 9 (3): 383–397.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ludvigsen, Jan Andre Lee. 2018. “The Portrayal of Drones in Terrorist Propaganda: A Discourse Analysis of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s Inspire.” Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide 11 (1): 1–24.Google Scholar
Mannes, Aaron. 2008. “Testing the Snake Head Strategy: Does Killing or Capturing Its Leaders Reduce a Terrorist Group’s Activity?” SSRN Electronic Journal 9: 40–49.Google Scholar
Mir, Asfandyar. 2018. “What Explains Counterterrorism Effectiveness? Evidence from the U.S. Drone War in Pakistan.” International Security 43 (2): 45–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mir, Asfandyar, and Moore, Dylan. 2019. “Drones, Surveillance, and Violence: Theory and Evidence from a US Drone Program.” International Studies Quarterly 63 (4): 846–862.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2007. “Defending against Terrorist Attacks with Limited Resources.” American Political Science Review 101 (3): 527–541.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Price, Bryan C. 2019. Targeting Top Terrorists: Understanding Leadership Removal in Counterterrorism Strategy. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reese, Michael J., Ruby, Keven G., and Pape, Robert A.. 2017. “Days of Action or Restraint? How The Islamic Calendar Impacts Violence.” American Political Science Review 111 (3): 439–459.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosendorff, B. Peter, and Sandler, Todd. 2004. “Too Much of a Good Thing? The Proactive Response Dilemma.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (1): 657–671.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sandler, Todd. 2011. “New Frontiers of Terrorism Research: An Introduction.” Journal of Peace Research 48 (3): 279–286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sandler, Todd. 2015. “Terrorism and Counterterrorism: An Overview.” Oxford Economic Papers 67 (1): 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sandler, Todd, and Arce, Daniel G. M.. 2003. “Terrorism and Game Theory.” Simulation and Gaming 34 (3): 319–337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shapiro, Jacob N. 2013. The Terrorist’s Dilemma. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Siqueira, Kevin, and Sandler, Todd. 2007. “Terrorist Backlash, Terrorism, Mitigation, and Policy Delegation.” Journal of Public Economics 91 (9): 1800–1815.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Staniland, Paul. 2014. Networks of Rebellion. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Staniland, Paul, Mir, Asfandyar, and Lalwani, Sameer. 2018. “The Politics of Pakistani Strategy on the North West Frontier.” Security Studies. 27 (4): 535–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taj, Farhat. 2010. “The Year of the Drone Misinformation.” Small Wars and Insurgencies 21 (3): 529–535.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Rigterink Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MNRIEP
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Rigterink supplementary material

Appendix

Download Rigterink supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 1 MB
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.