Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-mlc7c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-04T20:42:07.008Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

When Does Accommodation Work? Electoral Effects of Mainstream Left Position Taking on Immigration

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 December 2020

Frederik Hjorth*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Copenhagen University, Denmark
Martin Vinæs Larsen
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Aarhus University, Denmark
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: fh@ifs.ku.dk

Abstract

In many countries, right-wing populist parties have gained electoral support by attracting voters from mainstream left parties. This has prompted public and scholarly debate about whether mainstream left parties can regain political power by taking a more restrictive position on immigration, a so-called accommodation strategy. However, selection bias confounds observational estimates of the effectiveness of this strategy. This letter reports the results of a survey experiment conducted among Danish voters during a unique political situation in which the mainstream left party's position on immigration is ambiguous, enabling experimental manipulation of voters' perceptions of the party's position. The authors show that, consistent with spatial models of politics, accommodation attracts anti-immigration voters and repels pro-immigration voters. Because repelled voters defect to other left parties, while attracted voters come from right parties, accommodation increases overall support for parties that support a mainstream left government. The results demonstrate that in some contexts, accommodation can improve the political prospects of the mainstream left.

Type
Letter
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abou-Chadi, T and Wagner, M (2019) The electoral appeal of party strategies in postindustrial societies: when can the mainstream left succeed? The Journal of Politics 81(4), 14051419.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abou-Chadi, T and Wagner, M (2020) Electoral fortunes of social democratic parties: do second dimension positions matter? Journal of European Public Policy 2, 246272.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bale, T et al. (2010) If you can't beat them, join them? Explaining social democratic responses to the challenge from the populist radical right in Western Europe. Political Studies 58(3), 410426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barber, M and Pope, JC (2019) Does party trump ideology? Disentangling party and ideology in America. American Political Science Review 113(1), 3854.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benedetto, G, Hix, S and Mastrorocco, N (2020) The rise and fall of social democracy, 1918–2017. American Political Science Review 114(3), 928939.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bille, L (2013) Denmark. European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook 52(1), 5660.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahlström, C and Sundell, A (2012) A losing gamble. How mainstream parties facilitate anti-immigrant party success. Electoral Studies 31(2), 353363.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Döring, H and Manow, P (2019) Parliaments and governments database (Parlgov): Information on parties, elections and cabinets in modern democracies. Stable version.Google Scholar
Downs, A (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Givens, TE (2005) Voting Radical Right in Western Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hjorth, F, Larsen, MV (2020), “Replication Data for: When Does Accommodation Work? Electoral Effects of Mainstream Left Position-Taking on Immigration”, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QXBZOZ, Harvard Dataverse, V1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klüver, H and Spoon, J-J (2020) Responding to far right challengers: does accommodation pay off? Journal of European Public Policy 2, 273291.Google Scholar
Krause, W, Cohen, D and Abou-Chadi, T (2019) Does Accommodation Work? Mainstream Party Strategies and the Success of Radical Right Parties. Unpublished manuscript.Google Scholar
Meguid, BM (2005) Competition between unequals: the role of mainstream party strategy in niche party success. American Political Science Review 99(3), 347359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milne, R (2019) Danish centre-left woos voters with tough immigration stance. Financial Times, June.Google Scholar
Mutz, DC and Pemantle, R (2015) Standards for experimental research: encouraging a better understanding of experimental methods. Journal of Experimental Political Science 2(2), 192215.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seeberg, HB (2017) How stable is political parties’ issue ownership? A cross-time, cross-national analysis. Political Studies 65(2), 475492.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slothuus, R (2010) When can political parties lead public opinion? Evidence from a natural experiment. Political Communication 27(2), 158177.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slothuus, R (2016) Assessing the influence of political parties on public opinion: the challenge from pretreatment effects. Political Communication 33(2), 302327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strøm, K (1990) A behavioral theory of competitive political parties. American Journal of Political Science 34(2), 565598.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van der Eijk, C, et al. (2006) Rethinking the dependent variable in voting behavior: on the measurement and analysis of electoral utilities. Electoral Studies 25(3), 424447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Spanje, J (2018) Controlling the Electoral Marketplace: How Established Parties Ward Off Competition. London: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Hjorth and Larsen Dataset

Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Hjorth and Larsen Supplementary Materials

Hjorth and Larsen Supplementary Materials

Download Hjorth and Larsen Supplementary Materials(PDF)
PDF 207.6 KB