Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dsjbd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T21:26:09.071Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Combining the Hazards of Ministerial Appointment AND Ministerial Exit in the Canadian Federal Cabinet

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 November 2011

Matthew Kerby
Matthew Kerby*
Affiliation:
Memorial University
*
Matthew Kerby, Department of Political Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, A1C 5S7, Canada, kerbym@mun.ca
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Abstract. The Canadian federal cabinet stands out among Westminster parliamentary democracies because of the large number of first-time ministers who are appointed to cabinet without any previous parliamentary or political experience. Several explanations have been put forward to account for this peculiarity but no attempt has been made to examine how Canadian prime ministers overcome the information deficit associated with appointing ministers with no experience. How can prime ministers be confident that they are making the right choice? This paper explores the subject by estimating the survival functions of ministerial turnover for potential, but not yet appointed, cabinet ministers were they to survive to a defined political benchmark; these survival rates are included in a logit model of Canadian ministerial appointment following four general elections (1957, 1979, 1984 and 2006) in which the prime minister was tasked with appointing a cabinet with ministerial neophytes.

Résumé. Le Conseil des ministres fédéral du Canada se démarque dans l'ensemble des démocraties parlementaires britanniques en raison du grand nombre de ministres novices qui sont nommés au Conseil alors qu'ils ne possèdent aucune expérience parlementaire ou politique antérieure. Plusieurs explications de cette anomalie ont été proposées, mais aucune démarche d'analyse ne s'est encore penchée sur la manière dont les premiers ministres du Canada arrivent à surmonter le manque d'information associé à la nomination de ministres sans expérience. Comment les premiers ministres peuvent-ils être certains d'avoir fait le bon choix? Cette étude scrute le sujet en évaluant le coefficient de survie, en cas de remaniement ministériel, pour les ministres du Conseil potentiels, mais pas encore mandatés, advenant que ces derniers survivent à certains jalons politiques précis. Ces taux de survie font partie intégrante d'un modèle de répartition des nominations ministérielles qui sont survenues à la suite de quatre élections générales (1957, 1979, 1984 et 2006) où le premier ministre a dû constituer un Conseil des ministres composé de néophytes.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 44 , Issue 3 , September 2011 , pp. 595 - 612
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alderman, R.K. and Cross, J.A.. 1985. “The Reluctant Knife: Reflections on the Prime Minister's Power.” Parliamentary Affairs 38: 387–408.Google Scholar
Alderman, R.K. and Cross, J.A.. 1987. “The Timing of Cabinet Reshuffles.” Parliamentary Affairs 40 (1): 1–19.Google Scholar
Atkinson, Michael M. and Docherty, David C.. 1992. “Moving Right Along: The Roots of Amateurism in the Canadian House of Commons.” Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique 25 (2): 295–318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrie, Doreen and Gibbins, Roger. 1989. “Parliamentary Careers in the Canadian Federal State.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 22 (1): 137–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berlinski, Samuel, Dewan, Torun and Dowding, Keith. 2007. “The Length of Ministerial Tenure in the UK 1945–1997.” British Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 245–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berlinski, Samuel, Dewan, Torun and Dowding, Keith. 2010. “The Impact of Individual and Collective Performance on Ministerial Tenure.” The Journal of Politics 72 (2): 559–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berlinski, Samuel, Dewan, Torun, Dowding, Keith and Subrahmanyan, Gita. 2009. “Choosing, moving and resigning at Westminster, UK.” In The Selection of Ministers in Europe: Hiring and Firing, ed. Dowding, Keith and Dumont, Patrick. Abingdon: Routledge.Google Scholar
Bienen, Henry and van de Walle, Nicolas. 1992. “A Proportional Hazard Model of Leadership Duration.” Journal of Politics 54: 685–719.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S.. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crossley, John. 1997. “Picture This: Women Politicians Hold Key Posts in Prince Edward Island.” In In the Presences of Women: Representation in Canadian Governments, ed. Arscott, Jane and Trimble, Linda. Toronto: Harcourt Brace Canada.Google Scholar
Davey, Clark. 1957. “Diefenbaker Appoints 2 Ministers, 8 Aides.” The Globe and Mail (Toronto), August 8, 2.Google Scholar
Desserud, Don. 1997. “Women in New Brunswick Politics: Waiting for the Third Wave.” In In the Presence of Women: Representation in Canadian Governments, ed. Arscott, Jane and Trimble, Linda. Toronto: Harcourt Brace Canada.Google Scholar
Dewan, Torun and Dowding, Keith. 2005. “The Corrective Effect of Ministerial Resignations on Government Popularity.” American Journal of Political Science 49 (1): 46–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dewan, Torun and Myatt, David. 2010. “The Declining Talent Pool of Government.” American Journal of Political Science 54 (2): 267–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Docherty, David C. 1997. Mr. Smith Goes to Ottawa: Life in the House of Commons. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press.Google Scholar
Dowding, Keith and Dumont, Patrick, eds. 2009. The Selection of Ministers in Europe: Hiring and Firing. Abingdon: Routledge.Google Scholar
Dowding, Keith and Kang, Won-Taek. 1998. “Ministerial Resignations 1945–97.” Public Administration 76: 411–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferris, J. Stephen and Voia, Marcel-Cristian. 2009. “What Determines the Length of a Typical Canadian Parliamentary Government?” Canadian Journal of Political Science 42 (4): 881–910.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heard, Andrew. 1991. Canadian Constitutional Conventions: The Marriage of Law and Politics. Toronto: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hougaard, Philip. 2000. Analysis of Multivariate Survival Data. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, John D. and Martinez-Gallardo, Cecilia. 2004. “Cabinet Instability and the Accumulation of Experience: The French Fourth and Fifth Republics in Comparative Perspective.” British Journal of Political Science 34: 27–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, John D. and Martinez-Gallardo, Cecilia. 2008. “Replacing Cabinet Ministers: Patterns of Ministerial Stability in Parliamentary Democracy.” American Political Science Review 102 (2): 169–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Indridason, Indridi and Kam, Christopher. 2008. “Cabinet Reshuffles and Ministerial Drift.” British Journal of Political Science 38 (4): 621–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kam, Christopher and Indridason, Indridi. 2005. “The Timing of Cabinet Reshuffles in Five Westminster Parliamentary Systems.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 30: 327–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kerby, Matthew. 2009. “Worth the Wait: The determinants of ministerial appointment in Canada, 1935–2008.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 42 (3): 593–611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kerby, Matthew and Blidook, Kelly. 2011. “It's Not You, It's Me: Determinants of Voluntary Legislative Turnover in Canada” Legislative Studies Quarterly 36 (4): 621–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Alt, James E., Burns, Nancy Elizabeth and Laver, Michael. 1990. “A Unified Model of Cabinet Dissolution in Parliamentary Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science 34 (3): 846–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laver, Michael and Schofield, Norman. 1998. Multiparty Government: The Politics of Coalitions in Europe. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laver, Michael and Shepsle, Kenneth. 1996. Making and Breaking Governments: Cabinets and Legislatures in Parliamentary Governments. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matheson, William A. 1976. The Prime Minister and the Cabinet. Toronto: Methuen.Google Scholar
Matland, Richard E. and Studlar, Donley T.. 2004. “Determinants of Legislative Turnover: A Cross-National Analysis.” British Journal of Political Science 34: 87–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nielsen, Erik. 1989. The House Is Not a Home. Toronto: Macmillan of Canada.Google Scholar
Page, Barbara. 1990. “Ministerial Resignation and Individual Ministerial Responsibility in Australia 1976–1989.” Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 28: 141–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Porter, John. 1965. The Vertical Mosaic. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Punnett, Robert Malcolm. 1977. The Prime Minister in Canadian Government and Politics. Toronto: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Studlar, Donley T. and Moncrief, Gary. 1997. “The Recruitment of Women Cabinet Ministers in the Canadian Provinces.” Governance: An International Journal of Policy and Administration 10: 67–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutherland, S.L. 1991. “The Consequences of Electoral Volatility: Inexperienced Ministers 1949–90.” In Representation, Integration and Political Parties in Canada, ed. Bakvis, Herman. Ottawa: Royal Commission on Electoral Reform and Party Financing and Canada Communications Group, Supply and Services Canada and Dundurn Press.Google Scholar
White, Graham. 1998. “Shorter Measure: The changing ministerial career in Canada.” Canadian Public Administration 41 (3): 369–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
White, Graham. 2005. Cabinets and First Ministers. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Woodhouse, Diana. 1994. Ministers and Parliament: Accountability in Theory and Practice. Oxford: Clarendon Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar