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Sex (And Ethnicity) in the City: Affinity Voting in the 2014 Toronto Mayoral Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 August 2016

Karen Bird ,
Samantha D. Jackson ,
R. Michael McGregor ,
Aaron A. Moore  and
Laura B. Stephenson
Karen Bird*
Affiliation:
McMaster University
Samantha D. Jackson*
Affiliation:
McMaster University
R. Michael McGregor*
Affiliation:
Ryerson University
Aaron A. Moore*
Affiliation:
University of Winnipeg
Laura B. Stephenson*
Affiliation:
University of Western Ontario
*
Department of Political Science, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton ON, L8S 4M4, Email: kbird@mcmaster.ca
Department of Political Science, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton ON, L8S 4M4, Email: sjackson@mcmaster.ca
Department of Politics and Public Administration, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto ON, M5B 2K3, Email: mmcgregor@ryerson.ca
Department of Political Science, University of Winnipeg, 515 Portage Avenue, Winnipeg MB, R3B 2E9, Email: aa.moore@uwinnipeg.ca
Department of Political Science, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond St, London ON, N6A 3K7, Email: lstephe8@uwo.ca
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Abstract

Do women vote for women and men for men? Do visible minorities vote for minority candidates, and white voters for white candidates? And what happens when a minority woman appears on the ballot? This study tests for the presence of gender and ethnic affinity voting in the Toronto mayoral election of 2014, where Olivia Chow was the only woman and only visible minority candidate among the three major contenders. Our analysis, which draws on a survey of eligible Toronto voters, is the first to examine the interactive effects of sex and ethnicity on vote choice in Canada in the context of a non-partisan election and in a non-experimental manner. We find strong evidence of ethnic affinity voting and show that Chow received stronger support from ethnic Chinese voters than from other minority groups. Our results also reveal that gender was related to vote choice but only when connected with race.

Résumé

Les femmes votent-elles pour les femmes et les hommes pour les hommes? Est-ce que les minorités visibles votent pour des minorités visibles, et les électeurs blancs pour des candidats blancs? Quelle est la dynamique quand une candidate se présente qui est à la fois femme et minorité visible? La présente étude cherche à vérifier la présence du vote sur la base d'affinité de genre ou d'ethnicité lors de l’élection à la mairie de Toronto en 2014. Parmi les trois candidats compétitifs pour ce poste, Olivia Chow était la seule candidate femme et la seule candidate issue d'une minorité visible. Notre analyse, basé sur un sondage des électeurs torontois en règle, est le premier à examiner les effets interactifs du sexe et de l'ethnicité sur le choix du vote au Canada dans le contexte d'une élection non partisane et suivant une méthode non expérimentale. Nous trouvons des fortes indications de la présence d'un vote d'affinité ethnique et nous démontrons que Mme Chow a reçu plus d'appui des électeurs d'ethnicité chinoise que des autres groupes minoritaires. Nos résultats montrent également que le genre a affecté les choix électoraux, mais seulement en connexion avec la race.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 49 , Issue 2 , June 2016 , pp. 359 - 383
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2016 

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