Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-30T15:20:13.008Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Floods and armed conflict

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2015

Ramesh Ghimire  and
Susana Ferreira
Ramesh Ghimire
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, Athens, Georgia, USA. E-mail: ghimire@uga.edu
Susana Ferreira
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 313 Conner Hall, Athens, GA 30602, USA. Tel: +1 706-542-0086. Fax: +1 706-542-0739. E-mail: sferreir@uga.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We estimate the impact of large, catastrophic floods on internal armed conflict using global data on large floods between 1985 and 2009. The results suggest that while large floods did not ignite new conflict, they fueled existing armed conflicts. Floods and armed conflict are endogenously determined, and we show that empirically addressing this endogeneity is important. The estimated effects of floods on conflict prevalence are substantially larger in specifications that control for the endogeneity of floods, suggesting that treating natural disasters as exogenous phenomena may underestimate their impacts on sociopolitical outcomes.

Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 21 , Issue 1 , February 2016 , pp. 23 - 52
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen, C.H. and Bartels, L.M. (2004), ‘Myopic retrospection and party realignment in the great depression’, Unpublished manuscript, Princeton University, NJ.Google Scholar
Alcock, N.Z. (1972), The War Disease, Oakville, ON: CPRI Press.Google Scholar
Barnett, J. (2003), ‘Security and climate change’, Global Environmental Change 13(1): 7–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnett, J. and Adger, W.N. (2007), ‘Climate change, human security and violent conflict’, Political Geography 26(6): 639–655.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, C.F., Schaffer, M.E., and Stillman, S. (2007), ‘Enhanced routines for instrumental variables/GMM estimation and testing’, Stata Journal 7(4): 465–506.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergholt, D. and Lujala, P. (2012), ‘Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict’, Journal of Peace Research 49: 147–162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bleaney, M. and Dimico, A. (2011), ‘How different are the correlates of onset and continuation of civil wars?’, Journal of Peace Research 48(2): 145–155.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blimes, R.J. (2006), ‘The indirect effect of ethnic heterogeneity on the likelihood of civil war onset’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(4): 536–547.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brakenridge, G.R. (2011), ‘Global active archive of large flood events’, Dartmouth Flood Observatory, Boulder, CO, [Available at] http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/index.html.Google Scholar
Brass, P. (2003), The Production of Hindu-Muslim Violence In Contemporary India, Seattle, WA: University of Washington Press.Google Scholar
Burke, M.B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J.A., and Lobell, D.B. (2009), ‘Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(49): 20,670–20,674.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
CBS News (2010), ‘Insurgents, police clash amid Pakistan flooding’, CBSNews, 18 August.Google Scholar
Changnon, S.A., Pielke, R.A., Changnon, D., Sylves, R.T., and Pulwarty, R.S. (2000), ‘Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81(3): 437–442.2.3.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ciccone, A. (2011), ‘Economic shocks and civil conflict: a comment’, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3(4): 215–227.Google Scholar
Collier, P. and Hoeffler, A. (2004), ‘Greed and grievance in civil war’, Oxford Economic Papers 56(4): 563–595.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
CRED/OFDA (2011), ‘International disaster database’, Center for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, [Available at] http://www.emdat.be.Google Scholar
Cuñado, J. and Ferreira, S. (2014), ‘The macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters: the case of floods’, Land Economics 90(1): 149–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deininger, K. and Squire, L. (1996), ‘A new data set measuring income inequality’, World Bank Economic Review 10(3): 565–591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DiPasquale, D. and Glaeser, E.L. (1998), ‘The Los Angeles riot and the economics of urban unrest’, Journal of Urban Economics 43(1): 52–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DOD (Department of Defense) (2014), Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan, Washington, DC: US Department of Defense.Google Scholar
Drury, A.C. and Olson, R.S. (1998), ‘Disasters and political unrest: an empirical investigation’, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 6(3): 153–161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellingsen, T. and Gleditsch, N.P. (1997), ‘Democracy and armed conflict in the third world’, in Volden, K. and Smith, D. (eds), Causes of Conflict in Third World Countries, Oslo: North South Coalition and International Peace Research Institution, pp. 69–81.Google Scholar
Ezra, M. and Kiros, G.E. (2001), ‘Rural out-migration in the drought prone areas of Ethiopia: a multilevel analysis’, International Migration Review 35(3): 749–771.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Falk, R. (1971), This Endangered Planet: Prospected and Proposals for Human Survival, New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Fearon, J.D. and Laitin, D.D. (2003), ‘Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war’, American Political Science Review 97(1): 75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferreira, S. and Ghimire, R. (2012), ‘Forest cover, socioeconomics, and reported flood frequency in developing countries’, Water Resources Research 48(8): W08529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferreira, S., Hamilton, K., and Vincent, J.R. (2013), ‘Does development reduce fatalities from natural disasters? New evidence from floods’, Environment and Development Economics 18(6): 649–679.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferris, E. (2010) ‘Natural disasters, conflict, and human rights: tracing the connections’, Brookings, 3 March, [Available at] http://www.brookings.edu/research/speeches/2010/03/03-natural-disasters-ferris.Google Scholar
Fomby, T., Ikeda, Y., and Loayza, N.V. (2011), ‘The growth aftermath of natural disasters’, Journal of Applied Econometrics 28(3): 412–434.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ghimire, R., Ferreira, S., and Dorfman, J.H. (2015), ‘Flood-induced displacement and civil conflict’, World Development 66: 614–628.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, N.P., Wallensteen, P., Eriksson, M., Sollenberg, M., and Strand, H. (2002), ‘Armed conflict 1946–2001: a new dataset’, Journal of Peace Research 39(5): 615–637.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grofman, B.N. and Muller, E.N. (1973), ‘The strange case of relative gratification and potential for political violence: the V-curve hypothesis’, American Political Science Review 67(2): 514–539.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guha-Sapir, D., Vos, F., Below, R., and Ponserre, S. (2011), Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2010, Brussels: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters.Google Scholar
Hafiz, A. and Islam, N. (1993), Environmental Degradation and Intra/Interstate Conflicts in Bangladesh, Zurich: ETH-Zentrum, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.Google Scholar
Hegre, H., Ellingsen, T., Gates, S., and Gleditsch, N.P. (2001), ‘Toward a democratic civil peace? Democracy, political change, and civil war, 1816–1992’, American Political Science Review 95(1): 33–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hendrix, C.S. and Salehyan, I. (2012), ‘Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa’, Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 35–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Homer-Dixon, T.F. (1994), ‘Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: evidence from cases’, International Security 19(1): 5–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Homer-Dixon, T.F. (1999), Environment, Scarcity, and Violence, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Homer-Dixon, T.F. and Blitt, J. (1998), Ecoviolence: Links Among Environment, Population and Security, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Horowitz, D.L. (1985), Ethnic Groups in Conflict, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Hsiang, S.M., Marshall, B., and Edward, M. (2013), ‘Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict’, Science 341(6151): 1235367.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hugo, G. (1996), ‘Environmental concerns and international migration’, International Migration Review 30(1): 105–131.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Human Security Report (2012), Non-State Armed Conflict, Vancouver: Human Security Research Group, Simon Fraser University.Google Scholar
IANS (Indo-Asian News Service) (2010), ‘Taliban tap Pakistan flood misery to enlist 50,000 men’, Indo-Asian News Service, 31 August.Google Scholar
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) (2007), Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
IPCC (2012), ‘Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation’, in Field, C.B., Barros, V., and Stocker, T.F. (eds), A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kahn, M.E. (2005), ‘The death toll from natural disasters: the role of income, geography, and institutions’, Review of Economics and Statistics 87(2): 271–284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaya, L. (1994), ‘The reckoning’, Far Eastern Economic Review 27: 24–30.Google Scholar
Keefer, P. (2009), ‘Conflict and disaster’ , Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Kennedy, P. (2009), A Guide to Econometrics, Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Kronstadt, K.A., Sheikh, P.A., and Vaughn, B. (2010), Flooding in Pakistan: Overview and Issues for Congress, Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.Google Scholar
Lee, S.W. (2001), Environmental Matters: Conflict Refugees and International Relations, Tokyo: World Human Development Institute Press.Google Scholar
Looney, R. (2012), ‘Economic impacts of the floods in Pakistan’, Contemporary South Asia 20(2): 225–241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, M.G. and Jaggers, K. (2011), ‘Polity IV project: political regime characteristics and transitions, 1800–2010’, Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace, [Available at] http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm.Google Scholar
Miguel, E. and Satyanath, S. (2011), ‘Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict’, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3(4): 228–232.Google Scholar
Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., and Sergenti, E. (2004), ‘Economic shocks and civil conflict: an instrumental variables approach’, Journal of Political Economy 12(4): 725–753.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, A.H., Bolce, L.H., and Halligan, M. (1977), ‘The J-curve theory and the black urban riots: an empirical test of progressive relative deprivation theory’, American Political Science Review 71(3): 964–982.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Most, B.A. and Starr, H. (1980), ‘Diffusion, reinforcement, geopolitics, and the spread of war’, American Political Science Review 74(4): 932–946.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nel, P. and Righarts, M. (2008), ‘Natural disasters and the risk of violent civil conflict’, International Studies Quarterly 52(1): 159–185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neyman, J. and Scott, E.L. (1948), ‘Consistent estimates based on partially consistent observations’, Econometrica 16: 1–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nunn, N. and Puga, D. (2012), ‘Ruggedness: the blessing of bad geography in Africa’, Review of Economics and Statistics 94(1): 20–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oh, C.H. and Reuveny, R. (2010), ‘Climatic natural disasters, political risk, and international trade’, Global Environmental Change 20(2): 243–254.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olzak, S. (1992), The Dynamics of Ethnic Competition and Conflict, CA: Redwood City, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Otunnu, O. (1992), ‘Environmental refugees in sub-Saharan Africa: causes and effects’, Refuge 12(1): 11–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Political Risk Services (2011), ‘International country risk guide’, East Syracuse, NY: Political Risk Services, [Available at] https://www.prsgroup.com/about-us/our-two-methodologies/icrg.Google Scholar
Raschky, P.A. (2008), ‘Institutions and the losses from natural disasters’, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8(4): 627–634.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reardon, T. and Taylor, J.E. (1996), ‘Agroclimatic shock, income inequality, and poverty: evidence from Burkina Faso’, World Development 24(5): 901–914.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuveny, R. (2007), ‘Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict’, Political Geography 26(6): 656–673.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Righarts, M. (2010), ‘Pakistan's floods: a window of opportunity for insurgents?’, ABC News, 8 September.Google Scholar
Sarkozy, N. (2008), ‘Climate change driving Darfur crisis’, Agence France-Presse, 18 April.Google Scholar
Sarsons, H. (2011), ‘Rainfall, rupees, and riots: testing rainfall as an instrumental variable’, [Available at] http://sarso.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/sarsons_aug_draft1.pdf.Google Scholar
Shongwe, M., Oldenborgh, G.J.V., Boer, B.D., Hurk, B.V.D., and Aalst, M.V. (2008), ‘Changes in extreme weather in Africa under global warming, De Bilt: Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, [Available at] http://www.knmi.nl/africa_scenarios/brochure_Afrika.pdf.Google Scholar
Stock, J.H. and Watson, M.W. (2011), Introduction to Econometrics, Oxford: Pearson Education.Google Scholar
Suhrke, A. (1997), ‘Environmental degradation, migration, and the potential for violent conflict’, in Gleditsch, N.P. (ed.), Conflict and the Environment, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic, pp. 255–272.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sundberg, R., Eck, K., and Kreutz, J. (2012), ‘Introducing the UCDP non-state conflict dataset’, Journal of Peace Research 49: 351–362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Economist, The (2012), ‘Food and the Arab spring’, The Economist, 17 March.Google Scholar
Theisen, O.M. (2012), ‘Climate clashes? Weather variability, land pressure, and organized violence in Kenya, 1989–2004’, Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 81–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Themnér, L. and Wallensteen, P. (2012), ‘Armed conflicts, 1946–2011’, Journal of Peace Research 49(4): 565–575.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
TCCCR (2011), ‘Climate data’, Norwich: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, [Available at] http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/timm/cty/obs/TYN_CY_1_1.html.Google Scholar
United Nations (2007), ‘Security council holds first-ever debate on impact of climate change’, New York: United Nations, [Available at] http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2007/sc9000.doc.htm.Google Scholar
Nations, United (2010), ‘Population aged 15–24’, New York: United Nations, [Available at] http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_indicators.htm.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
UNITR (2010), The Pakistan Floods of 2010, Geneva: United National Institute for Training and Research, [Available at] http://www.unitar.org/unosat/node/44/1506.Google Scholar
Urdal, H. (2005), ‘People vs. Malthus: population pressure, environmental degradation, and armed conflict revisited’, Journal of Peace Research 42(4): 417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uvin, P. (1999), The Influence of Aid in Situations of Violent Conflict, Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Warren, R., Arnell, N., Nicholls, R., Levy, P., and Price, J. (2006), ‘Understanding the regional impacts of climate change’, Working Paper No. 90, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich.Google Scholar
WDI (2010), ‘World development indicator (WDI) & global development finance (GDF)’, Washington, DC: World Bank, [Available at] http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do.Google Scholar
White House (2009), ‘Remarks by the President at the acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize’, Washington, DC: Office of the Press Secretary, White House, [Available at] http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-acceptance-nobel-peace-prize.Google Scholar
Wilkinson, S.I. (2006), Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Wooldridge, J. (2002), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
World Bank (2010), ‘Adjusted net saving – a proxy for sustainability’, Washington, DC: World Bank, [Available at] http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTEEI/Resources/oil_and_gas_rents.xls.Google Scholar
Xinhua (2011), ‘Floods could reduce Thailand's economic growth by 1 percentage point’, Xinhua, 22 November, [Available at] http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-11/22/c_131263134.htm.Google Scholar
Zurayk, R. (2011), ‘Use your loaf: why food prices were crucial in the Arab spring’, The Guardian, 16 July.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Ghimire and Ferreira supplementary material

Appendix

Download Ghimire and Ferreira supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 58.9 KB