Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-4rdpn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-17T10:00:40.678Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Differential responses of Kashmir Himalayan threatened medicinal plants to anticipated climate change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 February 2022

Javaid M Dad  and
Irfan Rashid Open the ORCID record for Irfan Rashid [Opens in a new window]
Javaid M Dad
Affiliation:
Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar – 190 006, Jammu and Kashmir, India
Irfan Rashid*
Affiliation:
Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar – 190 006, Jammu and Kashmir, India
*
Author for Correspondence: Dr Irfan Rashid, Email: irfanrashid@uok.edu.in
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

As natural and anthropogenic forcings impel anticipated climate change, their effects on biodiversity and environmental sustainability are evident. A fundamental question that is often overlooked is: which changes in climate will cause the redistribution or extinction of threatened species? Here, we mapped and modelled the current and future geographical distributions of the four threatened medicinal plants – Aconitum heterophyllum Wall. ex Royle, Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don, Meconopsis aculeata Royle and Rheum webbianum Royle – in Kashmir Himalaya using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. Species occurrence records were collated from detailed field studies carried out between the years 2010 and 2020. Four general circulation models for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios were chosen for future range changes over periods around 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average of 2061–2080). Notable differences existed between species in their responses to predictive environmental variables of temperature and precipitation. Increase in the most suitable habitat, except for A. heterophyllum and R. webbianum, were evident across Himalayan Mountain regions, while the Pir Panjal mountain region exhibited a decrease for all four species under future climate change scenarios. This study exemplifies the idiosyncratic response of narrow-range plants to expected future climate change and highlights conservation implications.

Keywords

biodiversityclimate changeendangered plantsKashmir HimalayaMaxEnt
Type
Research Paper
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 49 , Issue 1 , March 2022 , pp. 33 - 41
Check for updates
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Foundation for Environmental Conservation

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abolmaali, R, Tarkesh, M, Bashari, H (2018) MaxEnt modeling for predicting suitable habitats and identifying the effects of climate change on a threatened species, Daphne mucronata, in central Iran. Ecological Informatics 43: 116–123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Al-Qaddi, N, Vessella, F, Stephan, J, Al-Eisawi, D, Schirone, B (2017) Current and future suitability areas of kermes oak (Quercus coccifera L.) in the Levant under climate change. Regional Environmental Change 17: 143–156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allouche, O, Tsoar, A, Kadmon, R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology 43, 1223–1232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bahukhandi, A, Sekar, KC, Barola, A, Bisht, M, Mehta, P (2019) Total phenolic content and antioxidant activity of Meconopsis aculeata Royle: a high value medicinal herb of Himalaya. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, India Section B 89: 1327–1334.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baumgartner, JB, Esperón-Rodríguez, M, Beaumont, LJ (2018) Identifying in situ climate refugia for plant species. Ecography 41: 1850–1863.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boroń, P, Zalewska-Gałosz, J, Sutkowska, A, Zemanek, B, Mitka, J (2011) ISSR analysis points to relict character of Aconitum bucovinense Zapał. (Ranunculaceae) at the range margin. Acta Societatis Botanicorum Poloniae 80: 315–326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
CAMP (2003) Conservation Assessment and Management Prioritization Workshop for Medicinal Plants of Northwest Himalayan States of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Bangalore, India: Foundation for Revitalization of Local Health Tradition (FRLHT).Google Scholar
Cunningham, AB, Brinckmann, JA, Pei, SJ, Luo, P, Schippmann, U, Long, X, Bi, YF (2018) High altitude species, high profits: can the trade in wild harvested Fritillaria cirrhosa (Liliaceae) be sustained. Journal of Ethnopharmacology 223: 142–151.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dad, JM (2019) Phytodiversity and medicinal plant distribution in pasturelands of Northwestern Himalaya in relation to environmental gradients. Journal of Mountain Science 16: 884–897.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dad, JM, Khan, AB (2011) Threatened medicinal plants of Gurez Valley, Kashmir Himalayas: distribution pattern and current conservation status. International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management 7: 20–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dad, JM, Muslim, M, Rashid, I, Rashid, I, Reshi, ZA (2021) Time series analysis of climate variability and trends in Kashmir Himalaya. Ecological Indicators 126: 107690.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dad, JM, Reshi, ZA (2015) Influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the species distribution of alpine rangelands of Gurez Valley, Kashmir, India. Tropical Ecology 56: 335–346.Google Scholar
Dyderski, M, Paz, S, Frelich, L, Jagodzinski, A (2018) How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions? Global Change Biology 24: 1150–1163.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fielding, A, Bell, J (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation 24: 38–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fois, M, Cuena-Lombraña, A, Fenu, G, Bacchetta, G (2018) Using species distribution models at local scale to guide the search of poorly known species: review, methodological issues and future directions. Ecological Modelling 385: 124–132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fois, M, Cuena-Lombraña, A, Fenu, G, Cogoni, D, Bacchetta, G (2016) The reliability of conservation status assessments at regional level: past, present and future perspectives on Gentiana lutea L. ssp. lutea in Sardinia. Journal for Nature Conservation 33: 1–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gaira, KS, Dhar, U, Belwal, OK (2011) Potential of herbarium records to sequence phenological pattern: a case study of Aconitum heterophyllum in the Himalaya. Biodiversity and Conservation 20: 2201–2210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gao, X, Wang, M, Giorgi, F (2013) Climate change over China in the 21st century as simulated by BCC_CSM1.1-RegCM4.0. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 6: 381–386.Google Scholar
Griffies, S, Winton, M, Donner, L, Horowitz, L, Downes, S, Farneti, R et al. (2011) The GFDL CM3 coupled climate model: characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations. Journal of Climate 24: 3520–3544.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IPBES (2019) Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Bonn, Germany: IPBES Secretariat.Google Scholar
Jeelani, SM, Siddique, MAA, Rani, S (2015) Variations of morphology, ecology and chromosomes of Aconitum heterophyllum Wall., an endangered Alpine medicinal plant in Himalayas. Caryologia 68: 294–305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jimenez-Valverde, A (2012) Insights into the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a discrimination measure in species distribution modelling. Global Ecology and Biogeography 21: 498–507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaky, E, Nolan, V, Alatawi, A, Gilbert, F (2020) A comparison between ensemble and MaxEnt species distribution modelling approaches for conservation: a case study with Egyptian medicinal plants. Ecological Informatics 60: 101150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knutti, R, Sedláček, J, Sanderson, BM, Lorenz, R, Fischer, EM, Eyring, V (2017) A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence. Geophysical Research Letters 44: 1909–1918.Google Scholar
Marcer, A, Sáez, L, Molowny-Horas, R, Pons, X, Pino, J (2013) Using species distribution modelling to disentangle realised versus potential distributions for rare species conservation. Biological Conservation 166: 221–230.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mateu-Andrés, I (2004) Low levels of allozyme variability in the threatened species Antirrhinum subbaeticum and A. pertegasii (Scrophulariaceae): implications for conservation of the species. Annals of Botany 94: 797–804.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Megan, E (2021) Re-conceptualizing the role(s) of science in biodiversity conservation. Environmental Conservation 48: 151–160.Google Scholar
Morgan, JW, Venn, SE (2017) Alpine plant species have limited capacity for long-distance seed dispersal. Plant Ecology 218: 813–819.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mouquet, N, Lagadeuc, Y, Devictor, V, Doyen, L, Duputié, A, Eveillard, D et al. (2015) Predictive ecology in a changing world. Journal of Applied Ecology 52: 1293–1310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Negi, VS, Kewlani, P, Pathak, R, Bhatt, D, Bhatt, ID, Rawal, RS et al. (2018) Criteria and indicators for promoting cultivation and conservation of medicinal and aromatic plants in Western Himalaya, India. Ecological Indicators 93: 434–446.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nunez, S, Arets, E, Alkemade, R, Verwer, C, Leemans, R (2019) Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2°C enough? Climatic Change 154: 351–365.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paramanick, D, Panday, R, Shukla, SS, Sharma, V (2017) Primary pharmacological and other important findings on the medicinal plant ‘Aconitum Heterophyllum’ (Aruna). Journal of Pharmacopuncture 20: 89–92.Google Scholar
Peterson, A, Papes, M, Soberon, J (2008) Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modelling. Ecological Modelling 213: 63–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, SR, Anderson, R, Schapire, RE (2006) Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190: 231–259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rana, SK, Rana, HK, Ghimire, SK, Shrestha, KK, Ranjitkar, S (2017) Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal. Journal of Mountain Science 14: 558–570.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rana, SK, Rana, HK, Ranjitkara, S, Ghimire, SK, Gurmachhan, CM, O’Neill, AR, Sun, H (2020) Climate-change threats to distribution, habitats, sustainability and conservation of highly traded medicinal and aromatic plants in Nepal. Ecological Indicators 115: 106435.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rashid, I, Romshoo, SA, Chaturvedi, RK, Ravindranath, NH, Sukumar, R, Jayaraman, M et al. (2015) Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas. Climatic Change 132: 601–613.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rathore, P, Roy, A, Karnatak, H (2019) Modelling the vulnerability of Taxus wallichiana to climate change scenarios in South East Asia. Ecological Indicators 102: 199–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riahi, K, Rao, SV, Cho, C, Chirkov, V, Fischer, G, Kindermann, G et al. (2011) RCP 8.5 – a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change 109: 33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romshoo, SA, Bashir, J, Rashid, I (2020) Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models. Climatic Change 162: 1473–1491.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stockwell, D, Peterson, A (2002) Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models. Ecological Modelling 148: 1–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tali, B, Ganie, A, Nawchoo, I, Wani, A, Reshi, Z (2014) Assessment of threat status of selected endemic medicinal plants using IUCN regional guidelines: a case study from Kashmir Himalaya. Journal of Nature Conservation 23: 80–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tali, B, Khuroo, AA, Nawchoo, IA, Ganie, A (2019) Prioritizing conservation of medicinal flora in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot: an integrated ecological and socioeconomic approach. Environmental Conservation 46: 147–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Terribile, L, Olalla-Tárraga, M, Diniz-Filho, J, Rodríguez, M (2009) Ecological and evolutionary components of body size: geographic variation of venomous snakes at the global scale. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 98: 94–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
United Nations (2015) Transforming our world: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development [www document]. URL https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld/publication Google Scholar
Ved, D, Saha, D, Ravikumar, K, Haridasan, K (2015) Aconitum heterophyllum. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2015: e.T50126560A79579556 [www document]. URL www.iucnredlist.org Google Scholar
Vincent, H, Bornand, C, Kempel, A, Fischer, M (2020) Rare species perform worse than widespread species under changed climate. Biological Conservation 246: 108586.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voldoire, A, Sanchez-Gomez, E, Mélia, D, Decharme, B, Cassou, C, Sénési, S et al. (2013) The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation. Climate Dynamics 40: 2091–2121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wise, M, Calvin, K, Thomson, A, Clarke, L, Bond-Lamberty, B, Sands, R et al. (2009) Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy. Science 324: 1183–1186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wisz, M, Hijmans, R, Li, J, Peterson, A, Graham, C, Guisan, A (2008) Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions 14: 763–773.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xu, D, Zhuo, Z, Wang, R, Ye, M, Pu, B (2019) Modeling the distribution of Zanthoxylum armatum in China with MaxEnt modeling. Global Ecology and Conservation 19: e00691.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yi, Y, Cheng, X, Wieprecht, S, Tang, C (2014) Comparison of habitat suitability models using different habitat suitability evaluation methods. Ecological Engineering 71: 335–345.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yukimoto, S, Adachi, Y, Hosaka, M, Sakami, T, Yoshimura, H, Hirabara, M et al. (2012) A new global climate model of the meteorological research institute: MRI-CGCM3 – model description and basic performance. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II 90: 23–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhao, Q, Li, R, Gao, Y, Yao, Q, Guo, X, Wang, W (2018) Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of medicinal plant Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don. Plant Biosystems 152: 349–355.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Dad and Rashid supplementary material

Dad and Rashid supplementary material 1

Download Dad and Rashid supplementary material(File)
File 4.1 MB
Supplementary material: File

Dad and Rashid supplementary material

Dad and Rashid supplementary material 2

Download Dad and Rashid supplementary material(File)
File 39.7 KB