Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2brh9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-21T15:24:49.185Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

WE OUGHT TO AGREE: A CONSEQUENCE OF REPAIRING GOLDMAN'S GROUP SCORING RULE

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 July 2012

Abstract

In Knowledge in a Social World, Alvin Goldman presents a framework to quantify the epistemic effects that various policies, procedures, and behaviors can have on a group of agents. In this essay, I show that the framework requires some modifications when applied to agents with credences. The required modifications carry with them an interesting consequence, namely, that any group whose members disagree can become more accurate by forming a consensus through averaging their credences. I sketch a way that this result can be used to show that individual norms of rationality and group norms of rationality can dictate conflicting behaviors for the members of some groups. I conclude by discussing how some of the assumptions used to generate the consensus result might be loosened.

Type
Disagreement and Opinion Aggregation
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Foley, Richard. 1987. The Theory of Epistemic Rationality. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibbard, Alan. 2008. ‘Rational Credence and the Value of Truth.’ In Gendler, T. and Hawthorne, J. (eds), Oxford Studies in Epistemology, vol. 2, pp. 143–64. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Gillies, Donald. 1991. ‘Intersubjective Probability and Confirmation Theory.’ British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 42: 513–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gneiting, Tilmann, and Raftery, Adrian. 2007. ‘Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation.’ Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102: 359–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldman, Alvin. 1999. Knowledge in a Social World. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldman, Alvin. 2010. ‘Systems-Oriented Social Epistemology.’ In Gendler, T. and Hawthorne, J. (eds), Oxford Studies in Epistemology, vol. 3, pp. 189214. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Joyce, James. 1998. ‘A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism.’ Philosophy of Science, 65: 575603.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Joyce, James. 2009. ‘Accuracy and Coherence: Prospects for an Alethic Epistemology of Partial Belief.’ In Huber, F. and Schmidt-Petri, C. (eds), Degrees of Belief, pp. 263–97. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelly, Thomas. 2003. ‘Epistemic Rationality as Instrumental Rationality: A Critique.’ Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 66: 612–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitcher, Philip. 1992. ‘The Naturalists Return.’ Philosophical Review, 101: 53114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kopec, Matthew. N.d. ‘Prospects for a Naturalistic Social Epistemology.’Google Scholar
Kornblith, Hilary. 1993. ‘Epistemic Normativity.’ Synthese, 94: 357–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lam, Barry. Forthcoming. ‘Calibrated Probabilities and the Epistemology of Disagreement.’ Synthese, DOI: 10.1007/s11229-011-9881-0.Google Scholar
Laudan, Larry. 1990. ‘Normative Naturalism.’ Philosophy of Science, 57: 4459.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leitgeb, Hannes, and Pettigrew, Richard. 2010a. ‘An Objective Justification of Bayesianism I: Measuring Inaccuracy.’ Philosophy of Science, 77: 201–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leitgeb, Hannes, and Pettigrew, Richard. 2010b. ‘An Objective Justification of Bayesianism II: The Consequences of Minimizing Inaccuracy.’ Philosophy of Science, 77: 236–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, David. 1980. ‘A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance.’ Reprinted with postscripts in Lewis (1986).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, David. 1986. Philosophical Papers, vol. 2. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
List, Christian, and Pettit, Philip. 2011. Group Agency: The Possibility, Design, and Status of Corporate Agents. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lockard, Matthew. Forthcoming. ‘Epistemic Instrumentalism.’ Synthese, DOI: 10.1007/s11229-011-9932-6.Google Scholar
Longino, Helen. 1990. Science as Social Knowledge: Values and Objectivity in Scientific Inquiry. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Longino, Helen. 2002. The Fate of Knowledge. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maher, Patrick. 2002. ‘Joyce's Argument for Probabilism.’ Philosophy of Science, 69: 7381.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayo-Wilson, Conor, Zollman, Kevin J.S., and Danks, David. 2011. ‘The Independence Thesis: When Individual and Social Epistemology Diverge.’ Philosophy of Science, 78: 653–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Predd, Joel, Seiringer, Robert, Lieb, Elliott H., Osherson, Daniel, Poor, H. Vincent, and Kulkarni, Sanjeev. 2009. ‘Probabilistic Coherence and Proper Scoring Rules.’ IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 55: 4786–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savage, Leonard. 1971. ‘Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations.’ Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66: 783801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seidenfeld, Teddy. 1985. ‘Calibration, Coherence, and Scoring Rules.’ Philosophy of Science, 52: 274–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar