Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-21T10:32:48.509Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Pax populi? An analysis of the conflict resolution potential of referendums on self-determination

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 May 2022

Micha Germann Open the ORCID record for Micha Germann [Opens in a new window]
Micha Germann*
Affiliation:
Department of Politics, Languages & International Studies, University of Bath, Bath, UK
*
Email: m.germann@bath.ac.uk
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The international community increasingly promotes referendums as it intervenes in self-determination conflicts around the world. However, the ability of self-determination referendums to bring about peace remains uncertain. This paper develops the argument that the conflict resolution potential of self-determination referendums is conditional, depending on whether or not they are held under the mutual agreement of the relevant minority and majority groups. When mutually agreed, self-determination referendums are likely to generate shared perceptions of fair decision-making and thereby increase chances for peace. By contrast, unilateral self-determination referendums are likely to increase ethnic grievances and, therefore, the risk of separatist violence. I find support for this argument in a global statistical analysis, short case studies, and a survey experiment. Overall, this study suggests that self-determination referendums can make a positive contribution to peace, but only if the conditions for a partial compromise on a referendum, including its terms, are ripe.

Keywords

referendumsself-determinationprocedural fairnessethno-nationalismcivil warseparatism
Type
Research Article
Information
European Political Science Review , Volume 14 , Issue 3 , August 2022 , pp. 403 - 423
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of European Consortium for Political Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barber, B.R. (1984), Strong Democracy, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Beetham, D. (1991), The Legitimation of Power, Basingstoke: Palgrave.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bogdanor, V. (1981), ‘Referendums and separatism II’ in Ranney, A. (ed.), The Referendum Device, Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, pp. 143–158.Google Scholar
Brancati, D. and Snyder, J. L. (2013), ‘Time to kill: the impact of election timing on postconflict stability’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 57(5): 822–853.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, D.B. and Signorino, C.S. (2010), ‘Back to the future: modeling time dependence in binary data’, Political Analysis 18(3): 271–292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cederman, L.-E. and Vogt, M. (2017), ‘Dynamics and logics of civil war’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 61(9): 1992–2016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cederman, L.-E., Wimmer, A. and Min, B. (2010), ‘Why do ethnic groups rebel? New data and analysis’, World Politics 62(1): 87–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collin, K. (2015), ‘Do referendums resolve or perpetuate contention?’, in Norris, P., Frank, R.W., and Coma, F.M. i. (Eds.), Contentious Elections, New York, NY: Routledge, pp. 111–130.Google Scholar
Cortés Rivera, J. J. (2020), ‘Creating new states: the strategic use of referendums in secession movements’, Territory, Politics, Governance: 1–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahl, R.A. (1990), After the Revolution? Authority in a Good Society, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Daxecker, U.E. (2012), ‘The cost of exposing cheating: international election monitoring, fraud, and post-election violence in Africa’, Journal of Peace Research 49(4): 503–516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, L. (2006), ‘Promoting democracy in post-conflict and failed states: lessons and challenges’, Taiwan Journal of Democracy 2(2): 93–116.Google Scholar
Dixon, P. (1997), ‘Paths to peace in Northern Ireland (II): the peace processes 1973–74 and 1994–96’, Democratization 4(3): 1–25.Google Scholar
Doyle, M.W. and Sambanis, N. (2006), Making War and Building Peace: United Nations Peace Operations, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Esaiasson, P., Gilljam, M. and Persson, M. (2012), ‘Which decision-making arrangements generate the strongest legitimacy beliefs? Evidence from a randomised field experiment’, European Journal of Political Research 51(6): 785–808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Esaiasson, P., Persson, M., Gilljam, M. and Lindholm, T. (2019), ‘Reconsidering the role of procedures for decision acceptance’, British Journal of Political Science 49(1): 291–314.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, G. and O’Leary, B. (2000), ‘Northern Irish voters and the British-Irish agreement: foundations of a stable consociational settlement?’, Political Quarterly 71(1): 78–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farley, L.T. (1986), Plebiscites and Sovereignty: The Crisis of Political Illegitimacy, Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, J.D. and Laitin, D.D. (2003), ‘Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war’, American Political Science Review 97(1): 75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friis, K. (2007), ‘The referendum in Montenegro: the EU’s ‘postmodern diplomacy’’, European Foreign Affairs Review 12(1): 67–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gash, A. and Murakami, M.H. (2015), ‘Venue effects: how state policy source influences policy support’, Politics and Policy 43(5): 679–722.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gellner, E. (1983), Nations and Nationalism, Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
George, J.A. (2009), The Politics of Ethnic Separatism in Russia and Georgia, New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Germann, M. (2017), ‘Pax Populi or Casus Belli? On the conflict resolution potential of self-determination referendums’, PhD dissertation, ETH Zurich.Google Scholar
Germann, M. and Gemenis, K. (2019), ‘Getting out the vote with voting advice applications’, Political Communication 36(1): 149–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Germann, M. and Sambanis, N. (2021), ‘Political exclusion, lost autonomy, and escalating conflict over self-determination’, International Organization 75(1): 178–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibson, J.L. (2006), ‘Overcoming apartheid: can truth reconcile a divided nation?’, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 603(1): 82–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodhart, P. (1981), ‘Referendums and Separatism I,’ in Ranney, A. (ed.), The Referendum Device, Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, pp. 138–142.Google Scholar
Gurr, T.R. (1970), Why Men Rebel, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gurr, T.R. (2000), Peoples Versus States: Minorities at Risk in the New Century, Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Harguindéguy, J.-B., Sánchez, E.S. and Sánchez, A.S. (2021), ‘Why do central states accept holding independence referendums? Analyzing the role of state peripheries’, Electoral Studies 69: 102248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
He, B. (2002), ‘Referenda as a solution to the national-identity/boundary question: an empirical critique of the theoretical literature’, Alternatives 27(1): 67–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hechter, M. (1992), ‘The dynamics of secession’, Acta Sociologica 35(4): 267–283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hechter, M. (2000), Containing Nationalism, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hegre, H. (2014), ‘Democracy and armed conflict’, Journal of Peace Research 51(2): 159–172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huszka, B. (2014), Secessionist Movements and Ethnic Conflict: Debate-Framing and Rhetoric in Independence Campaigns, London: Routledge.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group (2006), Montenegro’s Referendum: Europe Briefing N°42.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, S.N. and Sambanis, N. (2005), ‘Bosnia’s civil war: origins and violence dynamics’, in Collier, P. and Sambanis, N. (eds.), Understanding Civil War. Volume 2. Europe, Central Asia and Other Regions, Washington, DC: The World Bank, pp. 191–230.Google Scholar
Kelle, F.L. and Sienknecht, M. (2020), ‘To fight or to vote: sovereignty referendums as strategies in conflicts over self-determination’, WZB Discussion Paper No. SP IV 2020–101.Google Scholar
Kosienkowski, M. (2021), ‘The 2006 sovereignty referendum in Transnistria: a device for electoral advantage’, Ethnopolitics, 1–21. doi: 10.1080/17449057.2021.1953317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laponce, J.A. (2004), ‘Turning votes into territories: boundary referendums in theory and practice’, Political Geography 23(2): 169–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, S. and Mac Ginty, R. (2012), ‘Context and postconflict referendums’, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 18(1): 43–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, M. (1988), Of Rule and Revenue, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Lind, E.A. and Tyler, T.R. (1988), The Social Psychology of Procedural Justice, New York, NY: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loizides, N. (2009), Referendums in Peace Processes, Mimeo, Belfast: Queen’s University Belfast.Google Scholar
Loizides, N. (2014). ‘Negotiated settlements and peace referendums’, European Journal of Political Research 53(2): 234–249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mac Ginty, R. (2003), ‘Constitutional referendums and ethnonational conflict: the case of Northern Ireland’, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 9(2): 1–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maier, P. (1997), American Scripture: Making the Declaration of Independence, New York, NY: Random House.Google Scholar
Mansfield, E.D. and Snyder, J. L. (2007), ‘The sequencing “fallacy”’, Journal of Democracy 18(3): 5–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGarry, J. and O’Leary, B. (2009), ‘Power shared after the deaths of thousands’, in Taylor, R. (ed.), Consociational Theory, London: Routledge, pp. 15–84.Google Scholar
McKittrick, D. and McVea, D. (2012), Making Sense of the Troubles: A History of the Northern Ireland Conflict, London: Viking.Google Scholar
Meernik, J. D., Nichols, A. and King, K.L. (2010), ‘The impact of international tribunals and domestic trials on peace and human rights after civil war’, International Studies Perspectives 11(4): 309–334.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mendez, F. and Germann, M. (2018), ‘Contested sovereignty: mapping referendums on sovereignty over time and space’, British Journal of Political Science 48(1): 141–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O’Leary, B. (2019), A Treatise on Northern Ireland: Volume 3, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Olken, B.A. (2010), ‘Direct democracy and local public goods: evidence from a field experiment in Indonesia’, American Political Science Review 104(2): 243–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pateman, C. (1970), Participation and Democratic Theory, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peters, A. (1995), Das Gebietsreferendum im Völkerrecht: Seine Bedeutung im Licht der Staatenpraxis nach 1989 (The Territorial Referendum in International Law: Its Importance in Light of State Practice After 1989), Baden-Baden: Nomos.Google Scholar
Petersen, R.D. (2002), Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Tesentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Qvortrup, M. (2014), Referendums and Ethnic Conflict. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Radan, P. (2002), The Break-up of Yugoslavia and International Law. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reilly, B. (2008), ‘Democratic validation’, in Darby, J. and Mac Ginty, R. (eds.), Contemporary Peacemaking, London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 230–241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rudrakumaran, V. (1989), ‘The “requirement” of plebiscite in territorial rapprochement’, Houston Journal of International Law 12: 23–54.Google Scholar
Sambanis, N., Germann, M. and Schädel, A. (2018), ‘SDM: a new data set on self-determination movements with an application to the reputational theory of conflict’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(3): 656–686.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thibaut, J. and Walker, L. (1975), Procedural Justice, Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc.Google Scholar
Tierney, S. (2012). Constitutional Referendums: The Theory and Practice of Republican Deliberation, Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Toft, M.D. (2003), The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Toft, M.D. (2012), ‘Self-determination, secession, and civil war’, Terrorism and Political Violence 24(4): 581–600.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tonge, J. (2000), ‘From Sunningdale to the Good Friday Agreement: creating devolved government in Northern Ireland’, Contemporary British History 14(3): 39–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Torgler, B. (2005), ‘Tax morale and direct democracy’, European Journal of Political Economy 21(2): 525–531.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Towfigh, E.V., Goerg, S.J., Glöckner, A., Leifeld, P., Llorente-Saguer, A., Bade, S. and Kurschilgen, C. (2016), ‘Do direct-democratic procedures lead to higher acceptance than political representation? Experimental survey evidence from Germany’, Public Choice 167(1–2): 47–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyler, T.R. (2000), ‘Social justice: outcome and procedure’, International Journal of Psychology 35(2): 117–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vogt, M., Bormann, N.-C., Rüegger, S., Cederman, L.-E., Hunziker, P. and Girardin, L. (2015), ‘Integrating data on ethnicity, geography, and conflict: the ethnic power relations data set family’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(7): 1327–1342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, B.F. (2006), ‘Building reputation: why governments fight some separatists but not others’, American Journal of Political Science 50(2): 313–330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wambaugh, S. (1933), Plebiscites Since the World War: With a Collection of Official Documents. Vol I, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment.Google Scholar
Werner, H. and Marien, S. (2022), ‘Process vs. outcome? How to evaluate the effects of participatory processes on legitimacy perceptions’, British Journal of Political Science 52(1): 429–436.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wheatley, J. (2012), ‘The disruptive potential of direct democracy in deeply divided societies’, in Marxer, W. (ed.), Direct Democracy and Minorities, Wiesbaden: Springer VS, pp. 64–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Germann Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/UAVN8Q
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Germann supplementary material

Germann supplementary material

Download Germann supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 640.5 KB