Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-v2bm5 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-23T14:02:12.594Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Energy Resources and Markets – Perspectives on the Russia–Ukraine War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 July 2020

Jokull Johannesson  and
David Clowes
Jokull Johannesson
Affiliation:
School of Business and Law, University of Agder, PO Box, 455 Kristiansand, Norway
David Clowes
Affiliation:
School of International Trade and Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, No. 169 East Shuanggang Road, Changbei, Nanchang, 330013Jiangxi, China. Email: dcclowes@icloud.com
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article explains the causes of the Russia–Ukraine war starting in 2014 from the energy and energy markets perspective, based on resource dependency theory and the conceptual framework outlined by Jeffrey D. Colgan (2013). Our findings reveal that Russia is critically dependent on revenue from gas exports to Ukraine and the European Union, but also that Ukraine’s energy deposits and pipeline system have the potential to be a direct competitive threat to Russia’s energy exports. This paper argues that this was the underlying reason and main causal pathway leading to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the subsequent war in eastern Ukraine.

Type
Articles
Information
European Review , Volume 30 , Issue 1 , February 2022 , pp. 4 - 23
Copyright
© 2020 Academia Europaea

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Allison, GT (1971) Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Barbashin, A and Thoburn, H (2014) Putin’s brain: Alexander Dugin and the philosophy behind Putin’s invasion of Crimea. Foreign Affairs 31, 1–6, Available at https://bpi.enschool.org/ourpages/auto/2014/4/11/38578950/Putin_s%20Brain.pdf (accessed 9 February 2015).Google Scholar
Beitz, CR (1979) Political Theory and International Relations, Vol. 13. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Belyi, AV (2016) Limitations of resource determinism in international energy studies. Energy Research & Social Science 12 (Supplement C), 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2015.11.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berzins, J (2014) Russia’s new generation warfare in Ukraine: implications for Latvian defense policy. Policy Paper 2. Available at www.naa.mil.lv/~/media/NAA/AZPC/Publikacijas/PP%2002-2014.ashx (accessed 2 January 2018).Google Scholar
Biersack, J and O’Lear, S (2014) The geopolitics of Russia’s annexation of Crimea: narratives, identity, silences, and energy. Eurasian Geography and Economics 55(3), 247–269.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bobick, M and Dunn, E (2014) The empire strikes back: war without war and occupation without occupation in the Russian sphere of influence. American Ethnologist 41(3), 405–413. Available at https://anthrosource.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/amet.12086 Google Scholar
Bryman, A (2004) Qualitative research on leadership: a critical but appreciative review. The Leadership Quarterly 15(6), 729–769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2004.09.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bryman, A, Bresnen, M, Beardsworth, A and Keil, T (1988) Qualitative research and the study of leadership. Human Relations 41(1), 13–29, https://doi:10.1177/001872678804100102 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
China.org.cn (2014) Ukraine, Russia agree on nuclear fuel supply in 2015–2016. Available at: www.china.org.cn/world/2014-11/26/content_34154752.htm (accessed 3 April 2018).Google Scholar
Clowes, D (2018) The economic and security challenges facing NATO’s EU member states. Monografia, Special Series 152, Cracow University of Economics Press.Google Scholar
Colgan, JD (2013) Fueling the fire: pathways from oil to war. International Security 38(2), 147–180. https://doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00135 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davidson, WH (1980) The location of foreign direct investment activity: country characteristics and experience effects. Journal of International Business Studies 11(2), 9–22. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490602 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Energomashspetsstal (EMSS) (2015) Energomashspetsstal. Kiev: EMSS. Available at http://emss.ua/en/ (accessed 2 November 2018).Google Scholar
Euractiv (2019) Ukraine sets new tariffs for Russian gas transit to Europe. Available at www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/ukraine-sets-new-tariffs-for-russian-gas-transit-to-europe/ (accessed 25 December 2019).Google Scholar
EUROCOAL (2015a) Eurocoal Ukraine. Brussels: EUROCOL. Available at www.euracoal.com/pages/layout1sp.php?idpage=269 (accessed 2 November 2018).Google Scholar
EUROCOAL (2015b) Eurocoal Germany. Brussels: EUROCOL. Available at http://euracoal.eu/info/country-profiles/germany/ (accessed 2 November 2018).Google Scholar
Expro consulting (2018) Kazatomprom wins in Energoatom’s tender for supply of uranium oxide concentrate. Available at https://expro.com.ua/en/tidings/kazatomprom-wins-in-energoatoms-tender-for-supply-of-uranium-oxide--concentrate (accessed 7 November 2018).Google Scholar
Ferrier, WJ (2001) Navigating the competitive landscape: the drivers and consequences of competitive aggressiveness. Academy of Management Journal 4(4), 858–877, https://doi.org/10.5465/3069419 Google Scholar
Gardels, N (2014) Full circle: from a post-cold war peace to a world splitting into 4 blocs. New Perspectives Quarterly 31(4), 2–4, https://doi:10.1111/npqu.11479 (accessed 15 November 2018).Google Scholar
Gazprom (2015a) Gazprom Foreign Partners: Germany. Moscow: Gazprom. Available at http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/partners/germany/ (accessed 20 November 2018).Google Scholar
Gazprom (2015b) Gazprom Marketing. Moscow: Gazprom. Available at http://www.gazprom.com/about/marketing/ (accessed 26 November 2018).Google Scholar
Ghauri, P (2004) Designing and conducting case studies in international business research. Handbook of Qualitative Research Methods for International Business 1(1), 109–124.Google Scholar
Ghauri, PN and Grønhaug, K (2005) Research Methods in Business Studies: A Practical Guide. London: Pearson Education.Google Scholar
Gordon, R (1987) World Coal: Economics, Politics and Prospects. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Government Portal Ukraine (2018) Ukraine is momentous investment destination for EBRD – a meeting of Prime Minister of Ukraine and First Vice-President of the Bank. Available at www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-vazhlivij-napryamok-investicij-yebrr-zustrich-glavi-uryadu-z-pershim-vice-prezidentom-banku (accessed 14 June 2018).Google Scholar
Groysman, V (2017) Ukraine ranks world’s 2nd or 3rd in gas deposits – Groysman. UNIAN. Available at https://economics.unian.info/2269216-ukraine-ranks-worlds-2nd-or-3rd-in-gas-deposits-groysman.html (accessed 5 December 2018).Google Scholar
Hague, W (2014) Oral statement to Parliament: Russia’s actions in Crimea. London: UK Parliament. Available at www.gov.uk/government/speeches/russias-actions-in-crimea (accessed 7 December 2018).Google Scholar
ICM—PETROLEUM-MANAGEMENT (2012) Is the Black Sea the Next North Sea. Thessalonniki: IENE Conference. Available at www.iene.gr/6thSEEED/articlefiles/sessionIII/Hutta.pdf (accessed 15 December 2018).Google Scholar
Interfax-Ukraine (2016) Ukraine cuts coal production by 38.8% in 2015. Interfax. Kiev: Interfax-Ukraine. Available at http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/316789.html (accessed 3 October 2018).Google Scholar
Kobolyev, A (2017) Naftogaz strategy: Affordable Energy for Ukraine. Kiev: Naftogaz. Available at www.naftogaz.com/files/Information/2017-10-24%20A.Kobolyev_Strategy_EN.pdf (accessed 5 January 2018).Google Scholar
Kuchma, LD (2014) Ex-President Kuchma Says Only West Can Resolve Ukraine Crisis. Kiev: Radio Free Europe. Available at www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-kuchma-west-can-resolve-crisis/25331611.html (accessed 1 February 2018).Google Scholar
Larson, DW and Shevchenko, A (2014) Russia says no: power, status, and emotions in foreign policy. Communist and Post-Communist Studies 47(3), 269–279, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2014.09.003 (accessed 11 February 2018).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, JW, Song, HS and Kwak, J (2014) Internationalization of Korean banks during crises: the network view of learning and commitment. International Business Review 23(6), 1040–1048, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2014.06.009 (accessed 1 February 2018).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, TW, Mitchell, TR and Sablynski, CJ (1999) Qualitative research in organizational and vocational psychology 1979–1999. Journal of Vocational Behavior 55(2), 161–187, https://doi.org/10.1006/jvbe.1999.1707 (accessed 21 February 2018).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Y (2017) Interdependence, issue importance, and the 2009 Russia-Ukraine gas conflict. Energy Policy 102(Supplement C), 199–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.11.038 (accessed 14 February 2018).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, JS (2008) Case studies: types, designs, and logics of inference. Conflict Management and Peace Science 25(1), 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1080/07388940701860318 (accessed 18 February 2018).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mankoff, J (2014) The Ukraine crisis and the future of Sino-Russian Relations. The ASAN Forum, 25 July. Available at http://www.theasanforum.org/us-perspective-3/ Google Scholar
McFaul, M, Sestanovich, S and Maearsheimer, JJ (2014) Faulty powers: who started the Ukraine crisis? Foreign Affairs 93, 167, www.jstor.org/stable/24483933 (accessed 13 February 2018).Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, JJ (2014) Why the Ukraine crisis is the West’s fault, the liberal delusions that provoked Putin. Foreign Affairs 93(5), 77–89. Available at http://www.acamedia.info/politics/ukraine/Mearsheimer_2014.pdf (accessed 5 April 2018).Google Scholar
Natural Gas Europe (NGE) (2015) Why Ukraine Can Live Without Russian Gas For Now. Brussels: Natural Gas Europe. Available at www.naturalgaseurope.com/ukraine-russian-gas-price-dispute-effects-24548 (accessed 9 April 2018).Google Scholar
Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development and Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) (2014) Uranium 2014: Resources, Production and Demand. Geneva: OECD/NEA. Available at www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2014/7209-uranium-2014.pdf (accessed 8 December 2018).Google Scholar
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) (2015) Weekly Update from the OSCE Observer Mission at Russian Checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk Based on Information as of 10:00 (Moscow Time). Kamensk-Shahtinsky: Russian Federation. Available at www.osce.org/om/149091 (accessed 5 December 2018).Google Scholar
Ovcharenk, M (2017) In Ukraine, discussed the possibility of producing nuclear fuel (with China). Kiev: UPROM. Available at http://uprom.info/en/news/energy/v-ukrayini-obgovorili-mozhlivist-virobnitstva-yadernogo-paliva/ (accessed 9 December 2018).Google Scholar
Perlez, J (2014) China and Russia reach 30-year gas deal. The New York Times, 21 May. Available at https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/world/asia/china-russia-gas-deal.html Google Scholar
Pfeffer, J and Salancik, GR (2003) The External Control of Organizations: A Resource Dependence Perspective. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Pressman, JL and Wildavsky, AB (1973) Implementation: How Great Expectations in Washington are Dashed in Oakland; Or, why It’s Amazing that Federal Programs Work at All. Berkley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Putin, VV (2014) Direct line with Vladimir Putin. Moscow: Kremlin News. Available at http://eng.news.kremlin.ru/news/7034/print (accessed 9 November 2018).Google Scholar
Razumkov-Centre (2003) Ukraine coal industry: its state and trends against the background of restructuring. National Security & Defense 8(3). Available at www.razumkov.org.ua/eng/files/category_journal/NSD44_eng.pdf (accessed 12 November 2018).Google Scholar
Reuveny, R and Barbieri, K (2014) On the effect of natural resources on interstate war. Progress in Physical Geography 38(6), 786–806, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133314550667 (accessed 25 November 2018).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rutland, P (2014) The impact of sanctions on Russia. Russian Analytical Digest 157, 2–8. Available at www.files.ethz.ch/isn/186842/Russian_Analytical_Digest_157.pdf (accessed 23 November 2018).Google Scholar
Selznick, P (1949) TVA and the Grass Roots: A Study of Politics and Organization (Vol. 3) Berkley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Smith, P (2015) The New York Times ‘basically rewrites whatever the Kiev authorities say’: Stephen F. Cohen on the US/Russia/Ukraine History the Media Won’t Tell You. Salon. Available at www.salon.com/2015/04/16/the_new_york_times_basically_rewrites_whatever_the_kiev_authorities_say_stephen_f_cohen_on_the_u_s_russiaukraine_history_the_media_wont_tell_you/ (accessed 30 November 2019).Google Scholar
Snyder, T (2014) Fascism, Russia, and Ukraine. The New York Review of Books 20. Available at www.nybooks.com/articles/2014/03/20/fascism-russia-and-ukraine/ (accessed 2 November 2017).Google Scholar
Sprout, H and Sprout, M (1957) Environmental factors in the study of international politics. Journal of Conflict Resolution 1(4), 309–328, https://doi.org/10.1177/002200275700100401 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stulberg, AN (2017) Natural gas and the Russia-Ukraine crisis: strategic restraint and the emerging Europe-Eurasia gas network. Energy Research & Social Science 24(Supplement C), 71–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.12.017 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
TASS (2015) Kiev hopes to organize coal imports from Russia – energy minister. Moscow: TASS. Available at http://tass.ru/en/economy/812288 (accessed 8 June 2018).Google Scholar
Treisman, D (2014) Putin’s popularity since 2010: why did support for the Kremlin plunge, then stabilize? Post-Soviet Affairs 30(5), 370–388, https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2014.904541 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsygankov, A (2014) The sources of Russia’s Ukraine policy. Russian Analytical Digest 18(158). Available at www.files.ethz.ch/isn/186845/Russian_Analytical_Digest_158.pdf (accessed 24 August 2018).Google Scholar
Tsygankov, A (2015) Vladimir Putin’s last stand: the sources of Russia’s Ukraine policy. Post-Soviet Affairs 31(4), 279–303, https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2015.1005903 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
UAWire (2017) Ukraine nearly doubles this year’s coal imports with the bulk of it coming from Russia. Available at https://uawire.org/ukraine-nearly-doubles-this-year-s-coal-imports-which-mostly-come-from-russia (accessed 4 September 2018).Google Scholar
Ukrainian-Metal (2016) Ukraine: ATO Zone to Supply 800 Thousand Tons of Coal. Kiev: Metal Ukraine. Available at http://metalukraine.com/2015/08/21/ukraine-ato-zone-to-supply-800-thousand-tons-of-coal.html (accessed 6 December 2018).Google Scholar
Ukroboronprom (2015) Ukroboronprom Company website. Kiev: Ukroboronprom. Available at www.ukroboronprom.com.ua/ (accessed 6 January 2017).Google Scholar
Ukraine Statistical Agency (Ukrstat) (2014) Ukrstat: Population as of December 1, 2013. Average Annual Populations January-November 2013. Kiev: Ukrstat. Available at http://ukrstat.org/en/operativ/operativ2013/ds/kn/kn_e/kn1213_e.html (accessed 19 April 2015).Google Scholar
UNIAN (2017) Gas transit via Ukraine grows by almost 19% in 10 months. UNIAN. Kiev: UNIAN. Available at https://economics.unian.info/2221739-gas-transit-via-ukraine-grows-by-almost-19-in-10-months.html (accessed 23 May 2018).Google Scholar
Van de Graaf, T and Colgan, JD (2017) Russian gas games or well-oiled conflict? Energy security and the 2014 Ukraine crisis. Energy Research & Social Science 24(Supplement C), 59–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.12.018 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Varfolomeyev, O (2015) Ukraine runs out of coal, may run out of gas. Eurasia Daily Monitor 12(148). Available at https://jamestown.org/program/ukraine-runs-out-of-coal-may-run-out-of-gas/ (accessed 23 April 2016).Google Scholar
Walker, L (2019) Russian-Ukraine conflict sees coal deliveries drop to zero. Available at www.montelnews.com/en/story/russia-ukraine-conflict-sees-coal-deliveries-drop-to-zero/1024136 (accessed 4 July 2019).Google Scholar
World Nuclear Association (WNA) (2015a) Nuclear Power in Ukraine. London: WNA. Available at www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-T-Z/Ukraine/ (accessed 5 May 2016).Google Scholar
World Nuclear Association (WNA) (2015b) Russia’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle. London: WNA. Available at www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-O-S/Russia--Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/#Exports:_fuel_cycle (accessed 23 April 2016).Google Scholar
Yin, RK (1981) The case study crisis: some answers. Administrative Science Quarterly 26(1), 58–65, doi: 10.2307/2392599 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yin, RK (2013) Validity and generalization in future case study evaluations. Evaluation 19(3), 321–332, https://doi.org/10.1177/1356389013497081 CrossRefGoogle Scholar