Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-t5tsf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-16T08:48:42.620Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Global Economic Crisis and the Politics of Non-Transitions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2013

Thomas B. Pepinsky
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of the global economic crisis (GEC) on political change. A number of emerging European economies have experienced political turnover, but in other emerging and transition economies, government turnover and regime change have been comparatively rare. Two factors – incumbent governments' responsibility for the current crisis and their responsiveness to its domestic economic effects – shape the political effects of the GEC. Outside Europe, most emerging economies have experienced this crisis as an external shock to trade and investment rather than a domestic financial crisis. As a consequence, their governments have experienced less severe economic contractions, and have been able credibly to portray themselves as victims of, rather than causes of, the economic difficulties that they currently face. By placing political turnover in emerging Europe in comparative perspective, this argument provides a new perspective on the consequences of economic integration on national politics for emerging economies around the world.

Type
Articles
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 47 , Issue 2 , 2012 , pp. 135 - 161
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2012.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Among a long list of works, see especially Weiss, Linda, ‘Globalization and National Governance: Antinomy or Interdependence?’, Review of International Studies, 25 (1999), pp. 59–88 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Berger, Suzanne, ‘Globalization and Politics’, Annual Review of Political Science, 3 (2000), pp. 43–62 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; David Held and Anthony McGrew (eds), The Global Transformations Reader, New York, Polity Press, 2000.

2 Thomas B. Pepinsky, Economic Crises and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes: Indonesia and Malaysia in Comparative Perspective, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2009; Gasiorowski, Mark J., ‘Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis’, American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), pp. 882–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1995; Jeffrey M. Chwieroth and Andrew Walter, ‘Financial Crises and Political Turnover: A Long Run Panoramic View’, 2010, available at http://ncgg.princeton.edu/IPES/2010/papers/F1120_paper3.pdf.

3 Gourevitch, Peter A., ‘The Great Meltdown of '08: Six Variables in Search of an Outcome’, APSA-CP, 20 (2009 Google Scholar).

4 Mahoney, James, Kimball, Erin and Koivu, Kendra L., ‘The Logic of Historical Explanation in the Social Sciences’, Comparative Political Studies, 42 (2009), pp. 114–46CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

5 Hanieh, Adam, ‘Hierarchies of a Global Market: The South and the Economic Crisis’, Studies in Political Economy, 83 (2009), pp. 61–84 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

6 Haggard and Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions.

7 Gasiorowski, ‘Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change’; Chwieroth and Walter, ‘Financial Crises and Political Turnover’.

8 For a review, see Anderson, Christopher J., ‘The End of Economic Voting? Contingency Dilemmas and the Limits of Democratic Accountability’, Annual Review of Political Science, 10 (2007), pp. 271–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

9 Powell, G. Bingham and Whitten, Guy D., ‘A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context’, American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), pp. 391–414 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Wouter van der Brug, Cees van der Eijk and Mark Franklin, The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2007.

10 Duch, Raymond M. and Stevenson, Randolph T., The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2008 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

11 Duch, Raymond M., ‘A Developmental Model of Heterogeneous Economic Voting in New Democracies’, American Political Science Review, 95 (2001), pp. 895–910 Google Scholar.

12 Haggard and Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions.

13 Pepinsky, Economic Crises.

14 Fiorina, Morris P., Retrospective Voting in American National Elections, New Haven, CT, Yale University Press, 1981 Google Scholar.

15 Kiewiet, D. Roderick, Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1981 Google Scholar.

16 Anderson, ‘The End of Economic Voting?’.

17 Alcañiz, Isabella and Hellwig, Timothy, ‘Who's to Blame? The Distribution of Responsibility in Developing Democracies’, British Journal of Political Science, 41 (2011), pp. 389–411 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

18 Duch and Stevenson, The Economic Vote.

19 For a review of the causes of the Great Meltdown, see Carmen Reinhart and Andrew Felton (eds), The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century, London, VoxEU-Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2008.

20 Bank for International Settlements, 79th Annual Report: 1 April 2008–31 March 2009, Basel, Bank for International Settlements, 2009, pp. 57–61.

21 See e.g. Ben Bernanke, ‘Remarks at the Homer Jones Lecture, St. Louis, MO, April 14’, 2005, available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050414/default.htm.

22 See Roubini, Nouriel and Mihm, Stephen, Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance, New York, Penguin Press, 2010, pp. 130–2Google Scholar.

23 Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia, ‘Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly’, IMF Working Paper 10/146, 2010.

24 Forbes, Kristin J., ‘Comment on “The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries” ’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 41 (2010), pp. 308–15Google Scholar.

25 Blanchard, Olivier J., Das, Mitali and Faruqee, Hamid, ‘The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 41 (2010), pp. 263–307 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

26 Wade, Robert, ‘Iceland as Icarus’, Challenge, 52 (2009), pp. 5–33 Google Scholar; David Carey, ‘Iceland: The Financial and Economic Crisis’, 2009, available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/221071065826.

27 All figures from OECD, OECD Economic Surveys: Iceland, Paris, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2009, pp. 20–9.

28 Bloomberg, 27 February 2009.

29 World Bank, ‘Ukraine Economic Update, 19 July 2009’, available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTUKRAINE/Resources/MacroUpdate0907Efinal.pdf.

30 Hamilton-Hart, Natasha, Asian States, Asian Bankers: Central Banking in Southeast Asia, Ithaca, NY, Cornell University Press, 2002, pp. 69–100 Google Scholar.

31 IMF, World Economic Outlook: Crisis and Recovery, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, 2009, p. 65.

32 Morris Goldstein and Daniel Xie, ‘The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Emerging Asia’, 2009, available at http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/aepc/2009/09_Goldstein.pdf.

33 OECD, OECD Economic Surveys: Russia, Paris, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2009.

34 For a discussion of this definition, see Przeworski, Adam, Alvarez, Michael E., Cheibub, José Antonio and Limongi, Fernando, Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2000, pp. 13–36 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

35 Gaddy, Clifford G. and Ickes, Barry W., ‘Russia After the Global Financial Crisis’, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 51 (2010), pp. 281–311 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

36 Dinas, Elias, ‘The Greek General Election of 2009: PASOK − The Third Generation’, West European Politics, 33 (2010), pp. 389–98CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

37 Müller, Jan-Werner, ‘The Hungarian Tragedy’, Dissent, 58 (2011), pp. 5–10 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

38 Hardarson, Ólafur þ. and Kristinsson, Gunnar Helgi, ‘Iceland’, European Journal of Political Research, 49 (2010), pp. 1009–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

39 Ikstens, Jānis, ‘Latvia’, European Journal of Political Research, 49 (2010), pp. 1049–57CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

40 Bulag, Uradyn E., ‘Mongolia in 2009: From Landlocked to Land-linked Cosmopolitan’, Asian Survey, 50 (2010), pp. 97–103 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

41 Fink-Hafner, Danica, ‘Slovenia’, European Journal of Political Research, 48 (2009), pp. 1106–13CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

42 Kuzio, Taras, ‘Populism in Ukraine in a Comparative European Context’, Problems of Post-Communism, 57 (2010), pp. 3–18 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

43 Camilla Andersen, ‘Helping Ukraine Avoid a Hard Landing’, 2008, available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/CAR111008A.htm; Klaus Kessler, ‘Ukraine: Impact and Recovery from the Crisis’, in Jens Jungmann and Bernd Sagemann (eds), Financial Crisis in Eastern Europe, Wiesbaden, Gabler, 2011, pp. 581–620.

44 See Prasirtsuk, Kitti, ‘Thailand in 2009: Crises Continued’, Asian Survey, 49 (2009), pp. 174–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

45 Centro de Estudios de la Realidad Contemporánea, ‘Encuesta Nacional CERC, Octubre de 2009’, 2009, available at http://www.cooperativa.cl/prontus_nots/site/artic/20091020/asocfile/20091020173317/informe_de_prensa_cerc_octubre_2009_1.pdf.

46 Julia Bersch and Tara Sinclair, ‘Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap’, IMF Working Paper 11/79, 2011.

47 Economist, 28 January 2009.

48 Christian Science Monitor, 1 April 2009.

49 Washington Post, 5 November 2008.

50 See IMF, Crisis and Recovery.

51 Yilmaz Akyüz, Policy Response to the Global Financial Crisis: Key Issues for Developing Countries, Geneva, South Centre, 2009.

52 Constantinos Stephanou, ‘Dealing with the Crisis: Taking Stock of the Global Policy Response’, World Bank, Financial and Private Sector Development Vice Presidency Note Number 1, 2009.

53 Mark Weisbrot, Rebecca Ray, Jake Johnston, Jose Antonio Cordero and Juan Antonio Montecino, ‘IMF-Supported Macroeconomic Policies and the World Recession: A Look at Forty-One Borrowing Countries’, Washington, DC, Center for Economic and Policy Research, 2009.

54 Vreeland, James Raymond, The IMF and Economic Development, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

55 IMF, ‘IMF Executive Board Approves US$ 735 Million Precautionary Stand-By Arrangement for Costa Rica’, 2009, available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09124.htm.

56 Schwartz, Herman, ‘The Danish “Miracle”: Luck, Pluck, or Stuck?’, Comparative Political Studies, 34 (2001), pp. 131–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

57 See Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels, ‘Blind Retrospection: Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacks’, working paper, Princeton University, 2004.

58 Alcañiz and Hellwig, ‘Who's to Blame?’.

59 Hay, Colin, ‘Pathology Without Crisis? The Strange Demise of the Anglo-Liberal Growth Model’, Government and Opposition, 46: 1 (2011), pp. 1–31 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

60 MacIntyre, Andrew, Pempel, T. J. and Ravenhill, John (eds), Crisis as Catalyst: Asia's Dynamic Political Economy, Ithaca, NY, Cornell University Press, 2008 Google Scholar.

61 Authors working in numerous traditions have made this point; see e.g. Peter A. Gourevitch, Politics in Hard Times: Comparative Responses to International Economic Crises, Ithaca, NY, Cornell University Press, 1986; Haggard and Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions; Guillermo A. O'Donnell, Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics, Berkeley, Institute of International Studies, University of California, 1973.

62 Conaghan, Catherine M., ‘Ecuador: Correa's Plebiscitary Presidency’, Journal of Democracy, 19 (2008), pp. 46–60 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

63 Pepinsky, Thomas B., ‘The 2008 Malaysian Elections: An End to Ethnic Politics?’, Journal of East Asian Studies, 9 (2009), pp. 87–120 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

64 Minxin Pei, ‘Will the Chinese Communist Party Survive the Crisis? How Beijing's Shrinking Economy May Threaten One-Party Rule’, Foreign Affairs, 2009, available at http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64862/minxin-pei/will-the-chinesecommunist-party-survive-the-crisis.

65 World Bank, ‘World Development Indicators’, 2011, available at www.worldbank.org/data.

66 Joya, Angela, ‘The Egyptian Revolution: Crisis of Neoliberalism and the Potential for Democratic Politics’, Review of African Political Economy, 38 (2011), pp. 367–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

67 See Weyland, Kurt, ‘The Diffusion of Revolution: “1848” in Europe and Latin America’, International Organization, 63 (2009), pp. 391–423 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.