Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rdxmf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T11:55:04.313Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Go Your Own Way: The Pathways to Exiting the European Union

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 February 2021

Anders Ejrnæs Open the ORCID record for Anders Ejrnæs [Opens in a new window]  and
Mads Dagnis Jensen Open the ORCID record for Mads Dagnis Jensen [Opens in a new window]
Anders Ejrnæs
Affiliation:
Department of Social Sciences and Business, University of Roskilde, Roskilde, Denmark
Mads Dagnis Jensen*
Affiliation:
Department of International Economics, Government and Business, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen, Denmark
*
*Corresponding author. Email: mdj.egb@cbs.dk
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Studies have suggested that people voting for Brexit were motivated by anti-globalization, anti-multiculturalism and anti-elite sentiments. However, little is known about how these factors are related and whether citizens in other member states share similar reasons for wanting to exit the EU. Methodologically, this question is addressed by utilizing path models on data from the European Social Survey, with respondents in 17 countries. Empirically, this article reveals considerable cross-country variation, which implies that motivations for voting Leave should be assessed on a country-by-country basis. Yet, two main pathways are identified. First, lower education is related to more negative attitudes towards multiculturalism, which increases the probability of voting Leave. Second, lower income decreases the level of trust in the political establishment, which again increases the probability of voting Leave. Theoretically, this implies that the anti-globalization model is subsumed by the anti-multiculturalism and anti-elite models, giving rise to two new mechanisms.

Keywords

EuroscepticismBrexitopinion formationEuropean Union
Type
Article
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 57 , Issue 2 , April 2022 , pp. 253 - 275
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Government and Opposition Limited

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adcock, R and Collier, D (2001) Measurement Validity: A Shared Standard for Qualitative and Quantitative Research. American Political Science Review 95(3), 529–546. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055401003100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alwin, DF and Hauser, RM (1975) The Decomposition of Effects in Path Analysis. American Sociological Review 40(1), 37. https://doi.org/10.2307/2094445.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, CJ (1998) When in Doubt, Use Proxies: Attitudes Toward Domestic Politics and Support for European Integration. Comparative Political Studies 31(5), 569–601. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414098031005002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, CJ and Reichert, MS (1995) Economic Benefits and Support for Membership in the E.U.: A Cross-National Analysis. Journal of Public Policy 15(3), 231. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0143814X00010035.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Armingeon, K and Ceka, B (2014) The Loss of Trust in the European Union During the Great Recession Since 2007: The Role of Heuristics from the National Political System. European Union Politics 15(1), 82–107. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116513495595.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baluch, A (2017) The Dynamic of Euroscepticism in Germany. In Leruth, B, Startin, N and Usherwood, S (eds), The Routledge Handbook of Euroscepticism. London: Routledge, pp. 113–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartolini, S and Mair, P (1990) Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates 1885–1985. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Boomgaarden, HG et al. (2011) Mapping EU Attitudes: Conceptual and Empirical Dimensions of Euroscepticism and EU support. European Union Politics 12(2), 241–266. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116510395411.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boomgaarden, HG and Freire, A (2009) Religion and Euroscepticism: Direct, Indirect or No Effects? West European Politics 32(6), 1240–1265. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402380903230686.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bovens, M and Wille, A (2017) Education as a Cleavage. In Bovens, M and Wille, A (eds), Diploma Democracy: The Rise of Political Meritocracy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 41–60. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198790631.003.0004.Google Scholar
Breen, R, Karlson, KB and Holm, A (2013) Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects in Logit and Probit Models. Sociological Methods & Research 42(2), 164–191. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124113494572.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, S (2002) Undivided Loyalties. European Union Politics 3(4), 387–413. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116502003004001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Castells, M (2019) Rupture: The Crisis of Liberal Democracy. Cambridge: Polity.Google Scholar
Clarke, HD, Goodwin, M and Whiteley, P (2017) Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Down, I and Wilson, CJ (2013) A Rising Generation of Europeans? Life-Cycle and Cohort Effects on Support for ‘Europe’. European Journal of Political Research 52(4), 431–456. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Down, I and Wilson, CJ (2017) A Rising Generation of Europeans? Revisited. European Journal of Political Research 56(1), 199–214. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duff, A (2013) On Dealing with Euroscepticism. Journal of Common Market Studies 51(1), 140–152. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2012.02304.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ejrnæs, A and Jensen, MD (2019) Divided but United: Explaining Nested Public Support for European Integration. West European Politics 42(7), 1390–1419. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2019.1577632.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
ESS Round 8 (2016) Data file edition 2.2. NSD – Norwegian Centre for Research Data, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data for ESS ERIC. https://doi.org.10.21338/NSD-ESS8-2016.Google Scholar
Fienberg, SE (1979) Log Linear Representation for Paired Comparison Models with Ties and Within-Pair Order Effects. Biometrics 35(2), 479. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fox, S and Pearce, S (2018) The Generational Decay of Euroscepticism in the UK and the EU Referendum. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 28(1), 19–37. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2017.1371180.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gabel, M (1998) Interests and Integration. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garry, J and Tilley, J (2009) The Macroeconomic Factors Conditioning the Impact of Identity on Attitudes Towards the EU. European Union Politics 10(3), 361–379. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116509337829.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garson, G (2013) Fundamentals of Hierarchical Linear and Multilevel Modeling. In Garson, G (ed.), Hierarchical Linear Modeling: Guide and Applications. London: Sage. pp. 3–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grande, E and Kriesi, H (2012) The Transformative Power of Globalization and the Structure of Political Conflict in Western Europe. In Kreisi, H et al. (eds), Political Conflict in Western Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 3–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guilluy, C (2019) Twilight of the Elites: Prosperity, the Periphery, and the Future of France. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Hobolt, SB (2016) The Brexit Vote: A Divided Nation, a Divided Continent. Journal of European Public Policy 23(9), 1259–1277. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2016.1225785.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hobolt, SB and De Vries, C (2016) Public Support fo European Integration. Annual Review of Political Science 19(1), 413–432. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042214-044157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hooghe, L and Marks, G (2005) Calculation, Community and Cues. European Union Politics 6(4), 419–443. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116505057816.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hooghe, L and Marks, G (2009) A Postfunctionalist Theory of European Integration: From Permissive Consensus to Constraining Dissensus. British Journal of Political Science 39(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123408000409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hooghe, L and Marks, G (2018) Cleavage Theory Meets Europe's Crises: Lipset, Rokkan, and the Transnational Cleavage. Journal of European Public Policy 25(1), 109–135. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1310279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hooghe, L, Huo, JJ and Marks, G (2007) Does Occupation Shape Attitudes on Europe? Benchmarking Validity and Parsimony. Acta Politica 42(2–3), 329–351. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ap.5500190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inglehart, R and Norris, P (2016) Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash. HKS Working Paper No. RWP16-026. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2818659.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jiménez, AMR and de Haro, AE (2011) Spain: Euroscepticism in a Pro-European Country? South European Society and Politics 16, 105–131. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608741003594379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karlson, KB, Holm, A and Breen, R (2012) Comparing Regression Coefficients Between Same-Sample Nested Models Using Logit and Probit. Sociological Methodology 42(1), 286–313. https://doi.org/10.1177/0081175012444861.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kohler, U (2007) Surveys from Inside: An Assessment of Unit Nonresponse Bias with Internal Criteria. Survey Research Methods 1(2), 55–67. https://doi.org/10.18148/srm/2007.v1i2.75.Google Scholar
Kohler, U, Karlson, KB and Holm, A (2011) Comparing Coefficients of Nested Nonlinear Probability Models. Stata Journal 11(3), 420–438. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867×1101100306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuhn, T et al. (2016) An Ever Wider Gap in an Ever Closer Union: Rising Inequalities and Euroscepticism in 12 West European Democracies, 1975–2009. Socio-Economic Review 14(1), 27–45. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwu034.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Land, KC (1969) Principles of Path Analysis. Sociological Methodology 1, 3. https://doi.org/10.2307/270879.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leconte, C (2015) From Pathology to Mainstream Phenomenon: Reviewing the Euroscepticism Debate in Research and Theory. International Political Science Review 36(3), 250–263. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512115576236.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lees, C (2002) ‘Dark Matter’: Institutional Constraints and the Failure of Party-Based Euroscepticism in Germany. Political Studies 50(2), 244–267. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9248.00369.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leruth, B, Usherwood, S and Startin, N (2018) Conclusion: Euroscepticism and European (Dis)Integration in the Age of Brexit. In Leruth, B, Startin, N and Usherwood, S (eds), The Routledge Handbook of Euroscepticism, London: Routledge, pp. 468–477.Google Scholar
Lindberg, LN and Scheingold, SA (1970) Europe's Would-Be Polity: Patterns of Change in the European Community. New York: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Lipset, SM and Rokkan, S (1967) Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
McLaren, LM (2002) Public Support for the European Union: Cost/Benefit Analysis or Perceived Cultural Threat? Journal of Politics 64(2), 551–566. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2508.00139.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McLaren, L (2007) Explaining Mass-Level Euroscepticism: Identity, Interests, and Institutional Distrust. Acta Politica 42(2–3), 233–251. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ap.5500191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodriguez, MZ et al. (2019) Clustering Algorithms: A Comparative Approach. PLoS ONE 14(1), e0210236. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210236.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Startin, N (2015) Have We Reached a Tipping Point? The Mainstreaming of Euroscepticism in the UK. International Political Science Review 36(3), 311–323. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512115574126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taggart, P (1998) A Touchstone of Dissent: Euroscepticism in Contemporary Western European Party Systems. European Journal of Political Research 33(3), 363–388. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taggart, P and Szczerbiak, A (2013) Coming in from the Cold? Euroscepticism, Government Participation and Party Positions on Europe. Journal of Common Market Studies 51(1), 17–37. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2012.02298.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tajfel, H (1974) Social Identity and Intergroup Behaviour. Social Science Information 13(2), 65–93. https://doi.org/10.1177/053901847401300204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Usherwood, S and Startin, N (2013) Euroscepticism as a Persistent Phenomenon. Journal of Common Market Studies 51(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2012.02297.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vasilopoulou, S (2017) Theory, Concepts and Research Design in the Study of Euroscepticism. In Leruth, B, Startin, N and Usherwood, S (eds), The Routledge Handbook of Euroscepticism. London: Routledge, pp. 22–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Vreese, CH and Boomgaarden, HG (2005) Projecting EU Referendums. European Union Politics 6(1), 59–82. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116505049608.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Vries, CE (2018) Euroscepticism and the Future of European Integration. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williams, R (2012) Using the Margins Command to Estimate and Interpret Adjusted Predictions and Marginal Effects. Stata Journal 12(2), 308–331. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867×1201200209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Ejrnæs and Jensen supplementary material

Appendices 1-6

Download Ejrnæs and Jensen supplementary material(File)
File 78.1 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Ejrnæs and Jensen Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VAFIIO
Link