The cost-effectiveness of Human papillomavirus (HPV)-based primary cervical screening in the Irish healthcare setting is assessed using a decision-analysis approach to inform a decision around changes to the national screening program. Current practices comprises primary screening with liquid-based cytology (LBC) followed by HPV triage, at 3-yearly intervals for ages 25 to 45 years and 5-yearly until age 60 years.

This study assessed changing the primary screening test from LBC to HPV testing, in both an unvaccinated and a vaccinated (against HPV 16/18) cohort. It considered extending the screening interval (to 5-yearly for all), the upper age limit (from 60 to 65 years) and different test sequences (four possible tests were included: HPV, LBC, partial genotyping for HPV16 or HPV 18 and the molecular biomarker p16INK4a/Ki67). A Markov-model for HPV-infection and cervical cancer was developed based on a German cervical screening model (1). The perspective of the healthcare system was adopted and a 5 percent discount rate used.

Strategies using HPV as the primary screening test are more effective than LBC-based strategies. The optimal strategy, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of EUR45,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), for the unvaccinated cohort was HPV-based primary screening with a LBC triage test, at five-yearly intervals from age 25 to 60 years. This strategy is cost saving compared with current practice and cost effective when compared to no screening, with an Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of EUR18,164 per QALY. The optimal strategy for the vaccinated cohort was also HPV primary screening with a LBC triage test, at five-yearly intervals from age 25 to 60 years. While more effective and cost saving compared with current practice, it would not be considered cost effective compared with no screening (ICER of EUR58,745/QALY).

Based on our analyses, HPV-based cervical screening is more effective and cost saving compared with LBC-based screening for both vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts in an Irish setting.