Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a condition that leads to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), characterized by a gradual loss of kidney function. In 2021, the healthcare system expenditure of CKD in Australia was estimated to be over AUD2.3 billion (USD1.5 billion), largely attributed to Kidney Replacement Therapy (KRT, dialysis or kidney transplantation). This exploratory analysis aims to calculate the cost-benefit to the Australian healthcare system should KRT be delayed.

The prevalence of ESRD with and without KRT between 2016 and 2021 was estimated, and a simple linear regression model was created to estimate the prevalence of ESRD with KRT between 2022 and 2026. The projected cost of KRT management in 2022 was calculated, enabling an approximate cost benefit presented as the number of patients needed to reduce expenditure by AUD1 million (USD0.7 million).

In 2021, it was calculated that 34,554 patients live with ESRD in Australia, of which 28,542 patients are on KRT. The number of new patients on KRT increases linearly by an average of 943 patients per year and provided a model with a strong goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.99); predicting that the prevalence of patients on KRT is estimated to increase to 33,417 patients by 2026. Dialysis accounts for the highest cost associated with ESRD management, estimated to be AUD87,975/year/patient (USD58,253), and accounts for over AUD1.3 billion (USD0.9 billion) in annual expenditure. When considering the proportion of patients receiving KRT undergoing dialysis (52.6%), first-year renal transplant (3.4%), and post-kidney transplantation (43.9%), in 2022, the average annual cost per patient receiving KRT is estimated to be AUD57,565 (USD38,109). The prevention of KRT in 17.4 patients in 2022, decreasing to 15.4 patients in 2026, has the potential to save AUD1 million/year (USD0.7 million).

The prevalence of ESRD in Australia increases linearly and contributes to a significant cost to the Australian healthcare system. In 2022, preventing KRT in 17.4 patients (0.06%) can equate to a saving of AUD1 million/year (USD0.7 million), further decreasing to 15.4 patients (0.05%) in 2026.