Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T22:43:21.042Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Great Powers, Hierarchy, and Endogenous Regimes: Rethinking the Domestic Causes of Peace

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 March 2015

Patrick J. McDonald
Get access

Abstract

This paper blends recent research on hierarchy and democratization to examine the theoretical and empirical costs of treating regime type exogenously in the literature most identified with studying its impact on international politics. It argues that the apparent peace among democratic states that emerges in the aftermath of World War I is not caused by domestic institutional attributes normally associated with democracy. Instead, this peace is an artifact of historically specific great power settlements. These settlements shape subsequent aggregate patterns of military conflict by altering the organizational configuration of the system in three critical ways—by creating new states, by altering hierarchical orders, and by influencing regime type in states. These claims are defended with a series of tests that show first how the statistical relationship between democracy and peace has exhibited substantial variation across great power orders; second, that this statistical relationship breaks down with theoretically motivated research design changes; and third, that great powers foster peace and similar regime types within their hierarchical orders. In short, the relationship between democracy and peace is spurious. The international political order is still built and managed by great powers.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 69 , Issue 3 , Summer 2015 , pp. 557 - 588
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2015 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Babst, Dean V. 1972. A Force for Peace. Industrial Research 14: 55–58.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, Katz, Jonathan N., and Tucker, Richard. 1998. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Sectional Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42(4): 1260–88.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2011. Democracy, Development, and the International System. American Political Science Review 105(4): 809–28.Google Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2012. The Great Powers and the International System: Systemic Theory in Empirical Perspective. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brinks, Daniel, and Coppedge, Michael. 2006. Diffusion Is No Illusion: Neighbor Emulation in the Third Wave of Democracy. Comparative Political Studies 39(4): 463–89.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph M., and Morrow, James D.. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, David B., and Signorino, Curtis S.. 2010. Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data. Political Analysis 18(3): 271–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik. 2001. Back to Kant: Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace as a Macrohistorical Learning Process. American Political Science Review 95(1): 15–31.Google Scholar
Chan, Steve. 1984. Mirror, Mirror on the Wall … Are Freer Countries More Pacific? Journal of Conflict Resolution 28(4): 617–48.Google Scholar
Cohrs, Patrick O. 2006. The Unfinished Peace After World War I: America, Britain and the Stabilisation of Europe, 1919–1932. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dafoe, Allan. 2011. Statistical Critiques of the Democratic Peace: Caveat Emptor. American Journal of Political Science 55(2): 247–62.Google Scholar
Dafoe, Allan, Oneal, John R., and Russett, Bruce. 2013. The Democratic Peace: Weighing the Evidence and Cautious Inference. International Studies Quarterly 57(1): 201–14.Google Scholar
Darwin, John. 2009. The Empire Project: The Rise and Fall of the British World System, 1830–1970. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Debs, Alexandre, and Goemans, Hein E.. 2010. Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War. American Political Science Review 104(3): 430–45.Google Scholar
Dixon, William J. 1994. Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict. American Political Science Review 88(1): 14–32.Google Scholar
Doyle, Michael W. 1986. Liberalism and World Politics. American Political Science Review 80(4): 1151–1169.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry. 1992. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88(3): 577–92.Google Scholar
Ghosn, Faten, Palmer, Glenn, and Bremer, Stuart A.. 2004. The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description. Conflict Management and Peace Science 21(2): 133–54.Google Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M. 2012. The Territorial Peace: Borders, State Development, and International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M., and , Meredith Sarkees. 2004. Measuring Alliances: The Correlates of War Formal Interstate Alliance Data Set, 1816–2000. Journal of Peace Research 41(2): 211–22.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2002. All International Politics Is Local: The Diffusion of Conflict, Integration, and Democratization. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Ward, Michael D.. 2006. Diffusion and the International Context of Diffusion. International Organization 60(4): 911–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gowa, Joanne. 1999. Ballots and Bullets: The Elusive Democratic Peace. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gowa, Joanne. 2011. The Democratic Peace After the Cold War. Economics and Politics 23(2): 153–71.Google Scholar
Gunitsky, Seva. 2014. From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century. International Organization 68(3): 561–97.Google Scholar
Harrison, Ewan. 2004. State Socialization, International Norm Dynamics, and the Liberal Peace. International Politics 41(4): 521–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hayes, Jarrod. 2012a. Securitization, Social Identity, and Democratic Security: Nixon, India, and the Ties that Bind. International Organization 66(1): 63–93.Google Scholar
Hayes, Jarrod. 2012b. The Democratic Peace and the New Evolution of an Old Idea. European Journal of International Relations 18(4): 767–791.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1988. Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K., and Allee, Todd L.. 2002. The Democratic Peace and Territorial Conflict in the Twentieth Century. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John. 2001. After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
James, Patrick, Solberg, Eric, and Wolfson, Murray. 1999. An Identified Systemic Model of the Democracy-Peace Nexus. Defence and Peace Economics 10(1): 1–37.Google Scholar
Johns, Robert, and Davies, Graeme A.M.. 2012. Democratic Peace or Clash of Civilizations? Target States and Support for War in Britain and the United States. Journal of Politics 74(4): 1038–52.Google Scholar
Kent, Bruce. 1989. The Spoils of War: The Politics, Economics, and Diplomacy of Reparations, 1919–32. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. Explaining Rare Events in International Relations. 2001. International Organization 55(3): 693–715.Google Scholar
Lake, David A. 2009. Hierarchy in International Politics. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Lake, David A. 2013. Legitimating Power: The Domestic Politics of US International Hierarchy. International Security 38(2): 74–111.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley. 2003. Do Alliances Deter Aggression? The Influence of Military Alliances on the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes. American Journal of Political Science 47(3): 427–39.Google Scholar
Lipson, Charles. 2003. Reliable Partners: How Democracies Have Made a Separate Peace. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
MacDonald, Paul K., and Parent, Joseph M.. 2011. Graceful Decline: The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment. International Security 35(4): 7–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Snyder, Jack L.. 2005. Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev. 2005. Dyadic MID Dataset (version 2.0). Available at <http://vanity.dss.ucdavis.edu/~maoz/dyadmid.html>..>Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Abdolali, Nasrin. 1989. Regime Types and International Conflict, 1816–1976. Journal of Conflict Resolution 33(1): 3–35.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Russett, Bruce. 1993. Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace. American Political Science Review 87(3): 624–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, Monty, Gurr, Ted Robert, and Jaggers, Keith. 2009. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics, 1800–2009. Available at <http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html>..>Google Scholar
McDonald, Patrick J. 2009. The Invisible Hand of Peace: Capitalism, the War Machine, and International Relations Theory. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, Gates, Scott, and Hegre, Havard. 1999. Evolution in Democracy–War Dynamics. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43(6): 771–92.Google Scholar
Mousseau, Michael. 2000. Market Prosperity, Democratic Consolidation, and Democratic Peace. Journal of Conflict Resolution 44(4): 472–507.Google Scholar
Mousseau, Michael, Hegre, Havard, and Oneal, John R.. 2003. How the Wealth of Nations Conditions the Liberal Peace. European Journal of International Relations 9(2): 277–314.Google Scholar
Narizny, Kevin. 2012. Anglo-American Primacy and the Global Spread of Democracy: An International Geneology. World Politics 64(2): 341–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oatley, Thomas. 2011. The Reductionist Gamble: Open Economy Politics in the Global Economy. International Organization 65(2): 311–41.Google Scholar
Oneal, John R., and Russett, Bruce M.. 1997. The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950–1985. International Studies Quarterly 41(2): 267–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Owen, John M. 1994. How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace. International Security 19(2): 87–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuveny, Rafael, and Li, Quan. 2003. The Joint Democracy–Dyadic Conflict Nexus: A Simultaneous Equations Model. International Studies Quarterly 47(3): 325–46.Google Scholar
Reus-Smit, Christian. 2013. Individual Rights and the Making of the International System. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Risse-Kappen, Thomas. 1995. Warlike Democracies? A Social Constructivist Interpretation of the Liberal Argument. European Journal of International Relations 1(4): 491–517.Google Scholar
Rosato, Sebastian. 2003. The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory. American Political Science Review 97(4): 585–602.Google Scholar
Rousseau, David L., Gelpi, Christopher, Reiter, Dan, and Huth, Paul K.. 1996. Assessing the Dyadic Nature of the Democratic Peace, 1918–88. American Political Science Review 90(3): 512–33.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce, and Oneal, John. 2001. Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Senese, Paul D. 1999. Democracy and Maturity: Deciphering Conditional Effects on Levels of Dispute Intensity. International Studies Quarterly 43(3): 483–502.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart, and Stuckey, John. 1972. Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965. In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Russett, Bruce, 19–48. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2005. Territory and Commitment: The Concert of Europe as Self-Enforcing Equilibrium. Security Studies 14(4): 565–606.Google Scholar
Steiner, Zara. 2005. The Lights that Failed: European International History, 1919–1933. London: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Thompson, William R. 1996. Democracy and Peace: Putting the Cart Before the Horse? International Organization 50(1): 141–74.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael R., and Weeks, Jessica L.P.. 2013. Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace. American Political Science Review 107(4): 849–65.Google Scholar
Trachtenberg, Marc. 1999. A Constructed Peace: The Making of the European Settlement, 1945–1963. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 2007. War and the State: The Theory of International Politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weede, Erich. 1984. Democracy and War Involvement. Journal of Conflict Resolution 28(4): 649–64.Google Scholar
Weeks, Jessica L. 2012. Strongmen and Straw Men: Authoritarian Regimes and the Initiation of International Conflict. American Political Science Review 106(2): 326–47.Google Scholar
Williams, Michael C. 2001. The Discipline of the Democratic Peace: Kant, Liberalism, and the Social Construction of Security Communities. European Journal of International Relations 7(4): 525–33.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

McDonald supplementary material S1

Appendix

Download McDonald supplementary material S1(File)
File 38.6 KB