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Dangerous Contenders: Election Monitors, Islamic Opposition Parties, and Terrorism

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 November 2019

Kerim Can Kavakli Open the ORCID record for Kerim Can Kavakli [Opens in a new window]  and
Patrick M. Kuhn Open the ORCID record for Patrick M. Kuhn [Opens in a new window]
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Abstract

How do international observers decide whether to criticize or condone electoral fraud in a country? We argue that this decision depends on the identity of the victims of electoral fraud. A monitoring organization is more likely to overlook fraud committed against groups that are deemed dangerous by its sponsor. Based on this insight, we hypothesize that in the post-Cold War era election monitors are more tolerant of fraud against Islamic challengers, especially when Islamic movements are perceived as a threat to political stability. In support of our hypothesis, we find that outside monitors are more likely to endorse an election in countries with an Islamic opposition party and an ongoing Islamist terrorist campaign. Furthermore, we find that the effect is driven by Western monitoring organizations and becomes stronger after the September 11 attacks. Our findings provide a simple yet powerful insight: the calculus of outside observers depends not only on who they wish to see in power, but also who they want to keep from power.

Keywords

Democracy promotioninternational election observationforeign election interventioninternational securityelections in developing countriesIslamic political partiesIslamist terrorism
Type
Research Note
Information
International Organization , Volume 74 , Issue 1 , Winter 2020 , pp. 145 - 164
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2019

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